I’d encourage you to read this piece by David Graham of The Atlantic.
He goes into detail on Obama’s somewhat tortured (that word seems to contradict his calm mien, but the tension in action is obvious) relationship between the party’s increasingly leftist progressive movement and his own centrist-left beliefs.
Read Graham and draw your own conclusions, but my hunch is this:
If you’re looking for Obama to endorse a presidential primary candidate in 2028, wait until it’s clear who the winning candidate is going to be.
I can’t see him publicly sticking his neck out for nobody, for a few reasons.
First, I don’t think he wants to short-circuit the candidate drawing the most enthusiasm unless the front-runner after the first few primaries is a clear Crisis Candidate who’ll Bomb a General Election. That’s Obama, the Sincere Pragmatic Democrat Who Wants to Save His Party and Win.
Second, my hunch is that he’s got quite a bit of pride in his bones and doesn’t want the political shame of an early endorsement of someone who turns out to lose the primary.
That’s Obama, the Proud Professor who just happened to become President and is the most popular politician in America. Don’t underestimate the pride and statistical validation that comes with that.
Third, he seems to be in that gray area between senior statesman who’s stepped aside versus reluctant but restless patron of a party he wants to win.
It seems there’s a lot of dissonance — not in his words, but actions. As Graham puts it, “He is in an awkward phase of his career — no longer young enough to be cool but still too young to be an elder statesman.”
In short, he’s not going to try to hold onto the past like Norma Desmond, but his concern for both his country and his reputation and legacy probably bump up against each other.
Just because he was president doesn’t mean he isn’t immune to the dynamic of the High School Football Star who’s now in his 40s and can’t entirely make peace with the dimming of the Friday Night Lights.
And just because he’s not immune to that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about his country or his party in the best possible way.
All of this to say — it’ll be fun to speculate about Obama’s preferred 2028 candidate, but it’s unlikely he’ll be in a rush to his old line “let’s be clear” about it until the primary has proven what’s clear about it.
[Photo: Obama and Mauricio Macri, by Casa Rosada, CC BY 2.5 ar]
