RepublicansTom Cotton

Tom Cotton favors Biden’s increased strikes against Houthis

by Christian Heinze

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton supported the Biden Administration’s decision this week to escalate retaliatory attacks against Houthi rebels for their ongoing targeting of shipping in the region.

Well, by supported, he did it in a way that cast plenty of blame on the Biden Administration: “Things should’ve never gotten this far.”

Early in his administration, Biden chose to delist the group as a foreign terrorist organization, but is now quickly reversing course — a switcheroo that enables Cotton to both support Biden’s move, while attacking him.

Below the post is Cotton’s Speech on the floor this week, in which he excoriates Biden and expresses his contempt for the Houthis and the havoc they’re creating.

2028 Implications: This might not seem important, but it’s a key trend.

Cotton has consistently taken a more interventionist approach to foreign policy than the populist base he’d need.

And this is yet another example.

Cotton seems to have 2028 ambitions, has even been mentioned as a possible, key figure in a Trump Administration (the two have a close relationship). That idea would cheer establishment Republicans, but most likely, provoke populists, even though Cotton has achieved some cred with the base thanks to his hard-line positions and rhetoric on immigration, trashing the January 6th indictment, and lending his support earlier this month to Trump’s nomination.

Cotton tweeted: “If you vote for President Trump, you don’t have to guess what will happen. You can know for certain that he’ll deliver on the border, the economy, and national security because he already did it.”

Going forward, this decision reveals his more expansive view of American foreign policy, even while the party heads in the opposite direction.

In fact, as Bradley Devlin reports, Biden’s decision to retaliate more forcefully is already provoking the ire of populist GOP figures like Utah Sen. Mike Lee. And no doubt, will continue to.

For many Republicans, the Houthi situation might seem tangential to the argument over Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Gaza.

But pols can reveal their basic orientations on matters like this.

Cotton is smart. Is it possible he’s more content to stay in his lane and take a position in a Trump Admin than run in an increasingly isolationist party?

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DemocratsGavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom nixes youth football tackling ban

by Christian Heinze

In a “whew” moment for national Democrats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a proposal that would’ve banned tackling in youth football in the Golden State.

In other words, tomorrow’s young Aaron Donald can breathe easier.

So can Democrats.

As Politico reports, the proposed ban was getting national attention and Fox News was about to tackle the issue in an upcoming segment and who knows how many more segments in the future.

2028 implications: Newsom governs one of the most liberal states in the nation. And while there are plenty of states as liberal, a lot of progressive legislation emerges first in California.

The popular (if not empirically proven) notion is that California is the breeding ground for future blue state initiatives, so both Democrats and Republicans pay close attention to it.

For example, if California is the first to implement a really liberal piece of legislation, other blue states might feel pressure to keep their progressive cred.

Meanwhile, Republicans can use California as a useful foil. “If they’re doing this in California, it’s coming next for you.”

Newsom has proven himself savvy in operating as a liberal governor in a state where a lot of proposals are left of liberal.

In fact, he’s pushed back on a lot of the most progressive legislation, and the big question is why.

Clearly, he has national aspirations. Is that his priority, or is he, fundamentally, more ideologically centrist?

Always tough to tell with Newsom, but he certainly has big national aspirations.

Can you imagine running for president in a general election where youth football was de-fanged into the inevitable, talking point,”they play snowflake football there”? How does that play in the swing state of Georgia (SEC land), Pennsylvania (Steeler and Eagle country), or practically any Midwestern state you have to win?

The truth is that Newsom did his party an electoral favor for the ’24 cycle and himself a favor for the ’28 cycle.

It was a safe and smart move by Newsom. Democrats themselves didn’t seem particularly excited about the ban and now he can deprive his critics of something that would have become “a thing.”

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Brian KempRepublicans

Brian Kemp boosts spending

by Christian Heinze

George is doing quite well, economically.

In fact, so well that Jeff Amy of the AP reports the state has reached its legal limit on its rainy day budget (15% of state revenue), while sporting $10.7 billion in surplus cash.

Well, Gov. Brian Kemp is ready to use that excess budget money, and he’s spending big in his latest budget proposal, adding $3.6 billion more to this year’s budget.

Here are some of the goodies he’s proposing:

Cash payments for all proposed construction and renovation projects.

$500 million for the state employee pension fund.

$2,500 in extra salary for public school teachers.

A 4% pay increase for state and university employees.

$3,000 more for law enforcement officers.

$3,000 raise for child welfare workers.

A 12% increase in funding for public education.

$205 million more for public school transportation.

$118 million boost in payments to nursing homes

And I could go on. Basically, it’s the state budget proposal of Oprah’s “everyone gets a car.”

2028 relevance: Now, Kemp isn’t running for reelection, so this isn’t a desperate ruse to curry favor with voters who are already pleased with his performance (his latest approval rating among Georgians is 58%).

So putting this in the context of a 2028 run (probable) and 2028 nomination (difficult, considering the way he’s defied Trump), it can only help him with Georgia’s hotly-contested and super important 16 electoral votes.

It’s way early – like almost irresponsibly early to handicap anything 2028 (but that’s kind of the point of this site) – but no matter his popularity in his state, he clearly hasn’t kissed the Trump ring or courted the populist base in the way that seems mandatory to win a presidential nomination.

Nevertheless, for a lot of Republicans who want to return to Reaganite roots, expect Kemp to be near the top of the wish list.

Big question going forward: Does he pivot, at some point, in the next four years, to populism now that he’s in his second term and doesn’t need broad approval in his state?

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