RepublicansRon DeSantis

DeSantis Drops out: Reaction from around the web

by Christian Heinze

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race this week, and promptly endorsed Donald Trump.

Here’s just how shocking but inevitable the train wreck of his candidacy was: DeSantis’ home state Tampa Bay Buccaneers lasted longer this season than the gov.

Now, starting this presidential primary and football season, who would have ever thought Baker Mayfield and Crew would be in the game longer than DeSantis?

I’m not going to state the obvious about his departure (until the end), but instead provide you with a smattering of obits.

Ben Shapiro, a notable backer of DeSantis, reaffirmed his conviction the Gov would have made the best president, but said the writing was on the wall and that it’s time to coalesce around Trump. I was half wondering if Shapiro might take his time to urge the coalesce, but no, even if it’s grudging — it’s still going to be real.

The Guardian’s David Smith remarked that DeSantis banked his campaign on the war on woke, and failed to realize that the pandemic was over and inflation was not (well, even if CPI indicates it’s coming down). And the war on Disney? He talked more about that than the war in Ukraine. Disney was a petty feud, not an intercontinental crisis. The big fuss made DeSantis seem small.

Jim Geraghty at the National Review notes that DeSantis spared himself from (even more) humiliation by dropping out before the Florida primary. Good point. Imagine coming in a distant second in a home state, where you’ve enjoyed a brief fiefdom.

Rolling Stone put together a list of all the times DeSantis evoked cringe (a very common theme to his campaign’s arc and narratives, and very true, and an absolutely fundamental and fatal liability to his candidacy from the start). Margaret Hartmann adds to it.

Over at The Atlantic, Paul Farhi makes a good point: “Fox News Isn’t A Kingmaker: If it were, Ron DeSantis would be the Republican front-runner.” Very true. Shocking to an extent, but not at all to another extent. Did Fox ever think it was powerful enough to take down Trump?

Candace Owens called it “great news” and Megyn Kelly wants him to run in 2028.

As usual, The Dispatch’s Nick Catoggio has the best take, but it’s behind a paywall.

A potential 2028 competitor, Gavin Newsom, said his sparring partner saved his political future by dropping out now.

Business Insider wondered if he ran the worst campaign ever (well, relative to expectations).

If you’re interested in politics, you’ve read all the stuff about why the campaign failed etc.,

2028 Implications: Everything. And this failed attempt at 2024 was something. Something big. DeSantis doesn’t seem to have gained many new fans, unlike other failed primary campaigns in the past. In fact, he lost support. That’s not a good sign for a candidate going forward.

Republicans used to be a get-in-line kind of nominating party. They’re not anymore. John McCain lost to George W. Bush, but won the 2008 nomination. Mitt Romney lost to McCain in 2008 but set himself up as the front runner and nominee in 2012. That’s just not the way it is anymore.

DeSantis is going to struggle to raise money. Both because he failed with so much of it, and because he squandered it, structurally.

Every candidate has his or her moment, and sometimes they can stretch a few cycles. But DeSantis’ moment was so singular to this time.

Chris Christie had a brief window in 2012, and backed away. 2016 was even worse for him and 2020 worse. Scott Walker had a moment after his battle with the unions.

In fact, DeSantis’ failure has often been compared to Scott Walker’s, but Walker wasn’t nearly as well-funded, or universally known as DeSantis. It was never Front Runner vs. Scott Walker. He was just another among the group of impressive candidates in 2016 who were torn to shreds by Trump.

Then there’s this for DeSantis. Having been defeated so thoroughly by Trump, it seems the big question looming over DeSantis 2028 is not what D does, but what Trump does or does not do for DeSantis.

Just as in his state primary campaign for governor, DeSantis’ political future will probably be determined by Trump’s whim. If Trump forgives him, DeSantis can try. If Trump commends him, DeSantis can compete. If Trump endorses him, DeSantis can win.

DeSantis’ future seems more affixed to Trump’s will than any other candidate’s because this was Trump vs. DeSantis, and by failing and then endorsing Trump, DeSantis offered up his political future.

Should she fail, Haley will likely endorse, too. But she’s attacked Trump, head-on, while DeSantis waited for the end, and everyone knew it was the end, so the attacks came from desperation, not strength.

This isn’t to say he can’t win in 2028. It’s merely to say that he probably can’t win unless Trump allows it.

Also, did he become a better candidate during the course of the 2024 season? Doesn’t seem so. Likability, warmth, true engagement. Those were always going to be his true obstacles as a national candidate.

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RepublicansTom Cotton

Tom Cotton favors Biden’s increased strikes against Houthis

by Christian Heinze

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton supported the Biden Administration’s decision this week to escalate retaliatory attacks against Houthi rebels for their ongoing targeting of shipping in the region.

Well, by supported, he did it in a way that cast plenty of blame on the Biden Administration: “Things should’ve never gotten this far.”

Early in his administration, Biden chose to delist the group as a foreign terrorist organization, but is now quickly reversing course — a switcheroo that enables Cotton to both support Biden’s move, while attacking him.

Below the post is Cotton’s Speech on the floor this week, in which he excoriates Biden and expresses his contempt for the Houthis and the havoc they’re creating.

2028 Implications: This might not seem important, but it’s a key trend.

Cotton has consistently taken a more interventionist approach to foreign policy than the populist base he’d need.

And this is yet another example.

Cotton seems to have 2028 ambitions, has even been mentioned as a possible, key figure in a Trump Administration (the two have a close relationship). That idea would cheer establishment Republicans, but most likely, provoke populists, even though Cotton has achieved some cred with the base thanks to his hard-line positions and rhetoric on immigration, trashing the January 6th indictment, and lending his support earlier this month to Trump’s nomination.

Cotton tweeted: “If you vote for President Trump, you don’t have to guess what will happen. You can know for certain that he’ll deliver on the border, the economy, and national security because he already did it.”

Going forward, this decision reveals his more expansive view of American foreign policy, even while the party heads in the opposite direction.

In fact, as Bradley Devlin reports, Biden’s decision to retaliate more forcefully is already provoking the ire of populist GOP figures like Utah Sen. Mike Lee. And no doubt, will continue to.

For many Republicans, the Houthi situation might seem tangential to the argument over Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Gaza.

But pols can reveal their basic orientations on matters like this.

Cotton is smart. Is it possible he’s more content to stay in his lane and take a position in a Trump Admin than run in an increasingly isolationist party?

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DemocratsGavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom nixes youth football tackling ban

by Christian Heinze

In a “whew” moment for national Democrats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a proposal that would’ve banned tackling in youth football in the Golden State.

In other words, tomorrow’s young Aaron Donald can breathe easier.

So can Democrats.

As Politico reports, the proposed ban was getting national attention and Fox News was about to tackle the issue in an upcoming segment and who knows how many more segments in the future.

2028 implications: Newsom governs one of the most liberal states in the nation. And while there are plenty of states as liberal, a lot of progressive legislation emerges first in California.

The popular (if not empirically proven) notion is that California is the breeding ground for future blue state initiatives, so both Democrats and Republicans pay close attention to it.

For example, if California is the first to implement a really liberal piece of legislation, other blue states might feel pressure to keep their progressive cred.

Meanwhile, Republicans can use California as a useful foil. “If they’re doing this in California, it’s coming next for you.”

Newsom has proven himself savvy in operating as a liberal governor in a state where a lot of proposals are left of liberal.

In fact, he’s pushed back on a lot of the most progressive legislation, and the big question is why.

Clearly, he has national aspirations. Is that his priority, or is he, fundamentally, more ideologically centrist?

Always tough to tell with Newsom, but he certainly has big national aspirations.

Can you imagine running for president in a general election where youth football was de-fanged into the inevitable, talking point,”they play snowflake football there”? How does that play in the swing state of Georgia (SEC land), Pennsylvania (Steeler and Eagle country), or practically any Midwestern state you have to win?

The truth is that Newsom did his party an electoral favor for the ’24 cycle and himself a favor for the ’28 cycle.

It was a safe and smart move by Newsom. Democrats themselves didn’t seem particularly excited about the ban and now he can deprive his critics of something that would have become “a thing.”

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Brian KempRepublicans

Brian Kemp boosts spending

by Christian Heinze

George is doing quite well, economically.

In fact, so well that Jeff Amy of the AP reports the state has reached its legal limit on its rainy day budget (15% of state revenue), while sporting $10.7 billion in surplus cash.

Well, Gov. Brian Kemp is ready to use that excess budget money, and he’s spending big in his latest budget proposal, adding $3.6 billion more to this year’s budget.

Here are some of the goodies he’s proposing:

Cash payments for all proposed construction and renovation projects.

$500 million for the state employee pension fund.

$2,500 in extra salary for public school teachers.

A 4% pay increase for state and university employees.

$3,000 more for law enforcement officers.

$3,000 raise for child welfare workers.

A 12% increase in funding for public education.

$205 million more for public school transportation.

$118 million boost in payments to nursing homes

And I could go on. Basically, it’s the state budget proposal of Oprah’s “everyone gets a car.”

2028 relevance: Now, Kemp isn’t running for reelection, so this isn’t a desperate ruse to curry favor with voters who are already pleased with his performance (his latest approval rating among Georgians is 58%).

So putting this in the context of a 2028 run (probable) and 2028 nomination (difficult, considering the way he’s defied Trump), it can only help him with Georgia’s hotly-contested and super important 16 electoral votes.

It’s way early – like almost irresponsibly early to handicap anything 2028 (but that’s kind of the point of this site) – but no matter his popularity in his state, he clearly hasn’t kissed the Trump ring or courted the populist base in the way that seems mandatory to win a presidential nomination.

Nevertheless, for a lot of Republicans who want to return to Reaganite roots, expect Kemp to be near the top of the wish list.

Big question going forward: Does he pivot, at some point, in the next four years, to populism now that he’s in his second term and doesn’t need broad approval in his state?

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