On Friday, CA Gov. Gavin Newsom nixed a bill that would have allowed some undocumented immigrants to apply for state-backed home loans.

“Given the finite funding available for CalHFA programs, expanding program eligibility must be carefully considered within the broader context of the annual state budget to manage our resources effectively. For this reason, I am unable to sign this bill.”

Politico’s Eric He gives both a great look at both the detailed policy that Newsom vetoed and the political context in which the veto occurred.

Of the political context, He notes:

Newsom has repeatedly warned fellow Democrats in Sacramento not to provide cannonfire for Republicans in an election year, issuing pleas for them to tamp down the raging culture wars rather than provoke them with hot-button issues ranging from banning youth tackle football to reparations. On other proposals that were unlikely to become law, he pushed state Democrats to subordinate their virtue signaling so conservative media outlets couldn’t paint the state as wildly out of touch with America.

That’s an important consideration, especially considering Trump might have brought it up at the debate tomorrow.

2028 implications: Newsom is watching a fellow California governor get hammered for being seen as too leftwing for centrist voters, as well as carrying the additional Rust Belt baggage of hailing from California.

Newsom is a more daring politician than Harris (to wit: she’s given only one interview to CNN, while Newsom has debated opponents on Fox News frequently and effectively), and he also boasts a genuinely more centrist record than Harris.

He’s termed out in 2027, so it wouldn’t be surprising to continue seeing him try to shed the “California liberal” label.

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Nikki Haley rebukes JD Vance and other Republicans on style.

In her Sunday interview with CBS News, Nikki Haley said JD Vance’s 2021 comments on childless women leaders were “not helpful” and told the GOP, broadly, to “stop it” with the insults and bring the election back to policy.

Here’s the relevant part of the transcript, via CBS News:

MARGARET BRENNAN: So we know that since Vice President Harris entered the race, the gap among women voters has grown to a now double-digit lead for her over Donald Trump, according to our CBS most recent survey. So how do they close that? Because just as recently as last week, JD Vance said he’s disoriented and disturbed that the head of the most powerful teachers’ union in the country doesn’t have a single child. He continues to say things that certainly are highlighted as being offensive to women. That is going to hurt, won’t it, with female voters? 

AMB. NIKKI HALEY: It’s not helpful. It’s not helpful. I mean– 

MARGARET BRENNAN: Is he an- an effective messenger for the policies you say they are stronger on?

AMB. NIKKI HALEY: I think that the policy- look, you can either look at style or you can look at substance. I choose as a voter to look at substance….. The substance is cutting taxes, making housing more affordable, immigration, national security, that’s the substance. The style is- no, it is not helpful to talk about whether women have children or whether they don’t. It’s not helpful to say any of those things that are personality driven or anything else. I have- I have said that, and I will continue to say to Republicans, stop it. That’s not helpful. You know, if you want to talk about things, stick with policy.

Americans are smart. They don’t need all of this other noise to distract them. They just want to know how you’re going to help them. And they’re- you know, what I would suggest to every American, look at the records of each of them. We had an administration of each of them. We had a Harris administration, we had a Trump administration. And then look at what they say to us now, and make your decisions off of that. And I think when you look at that, you- you’ve got some stark contrast there.

2028 implications: That’s not going to endear her to the MAGA elements she would need in 2028, but three things to remember.

First, Haley’s comments were coupled with a vigorous defense of Donald Trump’s agenda.

Second, it’s possible (probable) that Trump also cringed at the electoral implications of Vance’s comments on women, though reporting on whether he regrets his pick and Vance’s style is mixed.

Third, if Trump loses, suddenly Vance becomes a front-runner for 2028 and if (when) Haley runs, she’ll probably remind voters – in one way or another – of all the ways Vance became the most unpopular vice presidential pick in history.

Oh, a fourth: If you want a good read on the “childless cat lady” trope, here’s a deep dive from NPR, which traces it back to a Victorian Era trope and how the anti-suffragist movement used the image to try to keep women from gaining the right to vote.

Video via CBS.

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Nikki Haley tells Margaret Brennan of CBS News that she’s let Donald Trump’s campaign know that “I’m on standby,” if he should ever ask her to campaign for her.

Brennan follows up by asking what exactly she means by “standby,” and whether she’s advised him in preparation of his debate, and Haley seems to indicate that her team and Trump’s team have had a dialogue since June, but “there hasn’t been an ask yet.”

Here’s the relevant portion:

“He knows I’m on standby. I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that [campaign for him]….. whatever he decides to do with his campaign, he can do that. But when I called him back in June, I told him I was supportive. I think the teams have talked to each other a little bit, but there hasn’t been an ask of yet. But you know, should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

Harris has been his most muted and apparently reluctant surrogate (and to even call her a surrogate seems like a stretch. Let’s call her a supporter).

And she continues to criticize his campaign, in real-time.

In the same interview, she hammered JD Vance’s 2021 comments on childless, female leaders, disagreed with his support for government or insurance-mandated IVF treatment, and has made it abundantly clear that she supports Donald Trump’s agenda in contrast with Kamala Harris’, without walking back her criticisms of Donald Trump the man.

Moving Forward: Trump is famous to forgive political opponents who bend the knee, but has been less willing to make friendly with Haley – probably as a mirror to her own reluctance.

Just a few weeks ago, Trump was on a downward trajectory in polling, thanks for his terrible standing with female voters, but with Trump’s recent boost in swing states, it’s less clear he needs to deploy Haley as a centrist female voice to potentially reach that cohort.

But Haley appeals to more than just females. She’s centrist-friendly to men and women who don’t like Trump or the Democratic agenda, and beloved by old-guard Republicans who don’t like the party’s embrace of populism.

But recent polling suggests Trump is firming up his numbers with all elements of the GOP and a Sunday NYT/Siena poll found more Americans viewing him as a centrist candidate than Kamala (Read Nate Silver’s good analysis of why her 2020 campaign could cost her this one).

So it seems less likely Trump will deploy Haley unless she offers a full embrace. Which doesn’t seem likely at this point.

2028 implications: The continuing, most fascinating question: Will Trump ask Haley to join him in a second administration? He would only do so if he knew she’d say yes. So would she?

Or is she going to continue to strike this balance between supporting many of his policies, while withholding defense of the man, and staying just close enough to him to quell his anger, but far enough that she can credibly remove herself if he implodes.

Full interview below.

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U.S. Congressman Rho Khanna (D-CA) tells The Guardian he’s not a fan of his fellow Democrats labeling followers of the MAGA movement: “weird.”

Khanna to The Guardian at the Texas Tribune festival:

“I’m not , in candor, a fan of calling each other ‘weird’ or names, I don’t think that advanced American democracy…. I think we have to – in this country, and as a party – not just win, but deserve victory. And to deserve victory means to offer a vision that is going to bring this country together with a common purpose.”

Tim Walz, pre-Veep selection, famously called MAGA leaders “weird people” and Democrats have tried to stick that label on Donald Trump, JD Vance, and other leaders of the movement with Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki explaining to ABC News: “I think it’s really elegant in its simplicity.”

With its widespread adoption, Dems seem to think they’ve found a winning tagline, but it remains to be seen whether Republicans will effectively co-opt the insult and embrace it much as they did Hillary Clinton’s famous “deplorable” attack.

2028 implications: Khanna isn’t one of Harris’ most prominent surrogates, but disagreeing so sharply with one of the Dems’ key lines of attack is notable.

At this point, his stakes are relatively low because he wasn’t part of the Veep discussion and exists in dark horse regions of the 2028 campaign.

But his comments do suggest he’s not in any rush to follow a key, popular trend in Democratic messaging and might be thinking about charting a unique space in the party.

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Nikki Haley unleashes a tweet hammering Tenet Media co-founder and now-fired BlazeTV host, Lauren Chen, who was implicated as part of an alleged Russian disinformation scheme, meant to influence the right wing with pro-Russia talking points.

So here’s some context to Haley’s dig.

Chen, as the tweet noted, famously labeled Haley “America’s Last Neocon” for the former presidential candidate’s unwavering support for Ukraine (generally) and for the clip (specifically) below from a 2023 Townhall meeting where Haley made the case for funding.

To wit:

Chen’s post was viewed by 3.8 million and the popular rightwing influencer went on to tweet this follow up: “America’s border is wide open and under siege. The last thing people in America need to be concerned about is Ukraine’s border.”

That, of course, distills the Republican isolationist view on Ukraine over the past couple years. Its effectiveness comes from presenting the right wing with a fundamental choice: either protect the U.S. border or protect the Ukrainian border.

Those are the “only two options” and if you’re truly America First, whose borders matter more?

That argument is paired with the on again-off again nature of the populist’s concern about the deficit. “We can’t spend money on both efforts. Look at the national debt. Don’t you remember the Tea Party Movement? We’re still its heirs.”

So it’s an anti-Ukraine message that speaks uniquely to the Republican grassroots through two issues.

Haley and members of the older GOP guard have been fighting the idea that protecting the borders of both Ukraine and the United States is somehow incompatible. Mostly, they’ve been losing that fight.

Now what: Of course, Chen and Tenant’s alleged role in the Russian disinformation scheme doesn’t mean a populist rightwing is going to abandon its isolationism. Haley probably feels it’s a brief moment of vindication, yet it remains to be seen whether it’s just that — a brief moment. And it’s unlikely to change the populist wing’s message on Ukraine.

2028 implications: Even though it’s doubtful anybody will remember this brief episode, it’s part of the continuing arc of Haley’s apparent post-2024 strategy of holding firm on her foreign policy convictions (making her even more attractive to the centrist wing of the party), while she somehow tries to make that work with the elements of MAGA she’ll need in a 2028 campaign.

Thus, in the same week, she’s both blasted a popular right wing influencer and also noted on CBS that she’s on “standby” for Trump’s reelection campaign and “should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

The Haley Path is one of the most fascinating to watch.

The big question – would Trump ask her to serve again in his administration and would she do it?

[Photo: by Gage Skidmore, Wikipedia].

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Now that his state has legalized recreational marijuana use, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has issued a sweeping pardon for 150,000 Marylanders previously convicted for cannabis possession, and another 18,000 for possession with the intent to use drug paraphernalia.

Most of those cases are misdemeanors and the number could grow, although for now, no one’s getting out of jail from the pardons. It’s just about wiping records clean.

Moore said, “We cannot celebrate the benefits of legalization if we do not address the consequences of criminalization.”

The pardons, of course, apply to all ethnic groups, but as NPR notes, research has shown that black people are far more likely to be arrested for marijuana possession than whites, even though they use at about the same rates.

As such, Moore emphasizes that the move isn’t just what, to most, seems rather obvious (absolving those convicted for something now legal), but a systemic racial injustice.

NPR:

“If you look at the past, you see how policies have been intentionally deployed to hold back entire communities,” Moore said. “We’re talking about tools that have led to the mass incarceration of Black men and boys.”

Past drug policies, he said, contributed to minorities having less access to jobs, housing and education opportunities — and it also helps explain Maryland’s wide racial wealth gap, the governor added.

“To undo that kind of intentionality, we need to apply intentionality of our own,” Moore said.

Moore has picked up considerable buzz as a likely (and potentially very strong) 2028 contender.

The Daily Beast’s Ernest Owens has a great look at his appeal (his bio holds mass appeal for a general election: combat veteran*, business owner, Rhodes Scholar) and his policy agenda – which looks like it could resonate with parts of the Democratic coalition that have been drifting away, as the party has shifted towards a perception of cultural elitism.

Moore is shaping up to be a consensus figure among liberals given his blend of practical policy (such as raising the minimum wage, increasing tax credits for immigrants and childcare, and boosting state spending on education and transportation without raising taxes) and charm.

As Steny Hoyer said at a press conference, “I saw this young man – and I’ve been in politics for 120 years – “I said, ‘This guy’s got it’.”

Oh, and he gets along with people from across political stripes. Here he is downing shots with Ravens fans (this group doesn’t look like the Ivy League set).

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Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, whom many consider to be making a bid for a vice presidential nod in 2024, announced that her state is now banning the use of “X” for gender on state driver’s licenses.

The Daily Wire:

Sanders’ office announced that the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration (DFA) would rescind previous administrative procedures that allowed people to use an “X” designation instead of male or female on state-issued IDs. The ID must now align with the gender on the birth certificate of the resident. 

“This policy is just common sense,” Sanders told The Daily Wire. “Only women give birth, men shouldn’t play women’s sports, and there are only two genders. As long as I’m Governor, Arkansas state government will not endorse nonsense.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/arkansas-to-ban-use-of-x-on-drivers-licenses-says-gender-must-match-birth-certificate

There are a couple, interesting things.

One, Sanders shared her announcement first with The Daily Wire. Not Arkansas voters. Not local press.

In other words, she’s making a clear overture to national conservatives. She wants this move in the national news, and yeah, The Daily Wire made sure it was (to an extent).

Second, the timing is significant. Trump is currently deliberating on a vice-presidential pick and Sanders (just like her dad, Mike) sports national aspirations.

With Tim Scott emerging as the pseudo-CW pick for the moment, other Veep wannabes have to scramble, and that means doing things like announcing new bans on things that hadn’t even been previously codified in state law (such as this license plate thing), and releasing that information first to the national conservative outlet that’s been famously outspoken on these things.

So expect a lot more announcements like this from the pack of Veep contenders in the coming months.

And I say “coming months” because even though Trump claimed he’d already decided on a VP pick in January (unlikely, as he’s famously known for swift changes of mind), the TV showman in him seems to love the Veepstakes Pick Game.

In fact, it’s hard to think of another presidential nominee who’s more openly teased, name-dropped, and encouraged a national dialogue around “Who Trump Will Pick?”

It’s engaging. It keeps you clicking. It’s… yeah, fun.

So you’d expect him to announce a pick close to the July convention (maybe even at the convention, which would quadruple the ratings).

And that means — four more months of endless auditioning, which Trump, no doubt, loves.

(And four more months of headline-grabbing moves by Veep hopefuls).

[Photo: Public Domain]

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Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has declared March 11-April 9 as the month of Ramadan in Michigan.

TV6:

“The month of Ramadan has always been a time of deep spiritual reflection, increased charity, long nights filled with prayer, and time shared with family and friends,” Governor Whitmer said. “This year, a traditionally joyous holiday feels different, as Michigan families also come together to pray for lasting peace amid so much suffering in Gaza. We mourn with Michiganders who have lost loved ones. Michigan is stronger because of the Muslim community, and we will continue to wrap our arms around you and wish you a blessed Ramadan.”

Let’s get to the politics – because this announcement is substantial.

Michigan is a must-win for Joe Biden, and his pro-Israel stance on the war has famously cost him significantly with Muslim-American voters, who are a small but important voting demo in Michigan.

In fact, if you look at RCP’s aggregation of Michigan polls, you’ll see a clear flip from lean Biden to lean Trump, post the Hamas attack.

Prior to Hamas’ attack, Biden led in 5 of 7 Michigan matchups with Trump – the other 2 were ties.

After, Trump has led in 11 of the 14 polls, Biden only one, and there have been two ties.

In other words, something seems to have changed in October. Based on this math, the change can’t be coming entirely from Muslim-Americans, because the bloc just isn’t big enough. However, the conflict has reverberated through every demographic and if you add discontent from young people, along with other blocs, you can see how the flip could happen.

The race is still close (Trump is at +3.6% in the RCP average), but too close for Biden’s comfort, considering he won Michigan in 2020 by nearly 3% and now he’s looking up at Trump by 3%.

Enter Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Whitmer is already seen as one of the top-tier Democratic candidates in 2028.

In the most recent poll of Michigan voters, Whitmer boasted a stellar 61% approval rating in the purple state and here’s what’s most remarkable about that. This is the 6th year of her administration. Usually, this late in, voter fatigue sets in.

So no matter the outcome of the 2024 race, she’ll be a top-tier player in 2028.

However, helping deliver the state for Biden could be massive for her. Both as an electoral achievement and political showcase.

After all, it’s easy for Gavin Newsom to watch Biden stroll to victory in California. But both Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Whitmer are going to be forced to deal with purple state dynamics and all the requisite messiness and alacrity to navigate those waters.

The New York Times’ Mitch Smith does a deep-dive on just how important Whitmer is to Biden — noting that she’s popular with the demos Biden needs to come out and support him: moderates, suburbanites, and black leaders in Detroit. That’s the winning coalition for Biden. And as for Muslim-Americans, Smith notes Whitmer has had to perform a delicate (and, at times, clumsy) balancing act, but it’s important to note that it’s not just Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in her state, watching. It’s also young people (leaning Hamas), and centrists and moderates (pro-Israel).

That’s the trick.

Democrats will be watching Whitmer – both as a test case for their own response, and a test for the 2028 campaign.

[Photo: Public domain]

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Axios’ Sophia Cai sits down with Florida Rep. Byron Donalds for a 20 minute chat, and at the 19:05 mark (below), he clearly seems ready to run for governor of the state in 2026.

Cai: “Are you prepared to run for governor in 2026 against Matt Gaetz?”

Donalds: “Yeah, why wouldn’t I be?”

Listen to that tone. He seems to relish the chance. And Gaetz, you’d assume, would as well. It could be a brutal primary campaign.

Unless, of course, Casey DeSantis runs.

Sure, her husband is weakened and maybe, by extension, Casey, but the most recent poll (November 2023, albeit before Ron’s national implosion) had her in the lead: DeSantis 22%, Donalds and Gaetz 9%, and a host of others much farther down, with a lot of undecided voters.

So Casey is the big question mark. She wouldn’t clear the field, by any means, but you could imagine her presence making a Donalds/Gaetz knife fight on the debate stage look like a petulant schoolyard brawl. They should hope she doesn’t run.

And let’s remember how big this gubernatorial race is.

Florida might be receding as the trendy conservative spot, but any governor of Florida is immediately a serious national presidential contender.

So Donalds has big aspirations, and why shouldn’t he?

Watch the 20 minute interview if you’re interested in him. If Trump does indeed pick an African-American for Veep, Donalds exudes a lot more charisma than Sen. Tim Scott (Scott is currently in the #1 spot on PredictIt betting market, while Donalds is #7).

And Donalds seems to want the spot — telling Axios in the same interview that, as vice-president, he wouldn’t necessarily certify the 2028 presidential election results.

Of course Trump (presumably) can’t be on the ballot for that election, but Donalds’ answer will certainly please the president, regardless.

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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, one of the Democrats’ top prospective 2028 presidential nominees, this week announced an election task force that will center efforts on “working together to combat misinformation, safeguard the rights of every citizen, and ensure this election [2024] is safe, secure, free, and fair.”

In other words, the crucial presidential battle over Pennsylvania is primed to become even hotter and, as anticipated by Shapiro, contentious than ever.

You can expect Trump and the GOP to highlight Shapiro’s measures in the coming months, linking his political affiliation (Democratic) and presidential aspirations in 2028 (legit) to cast doubt on any outcome that might not be favorable to the former president.

Biden is currently leading PA by .8% in the RCP average, although the most recent polls have Trump pulling ahead, and the conventional wisdom is that Trump is now the state’s front-runner.

However, as we get closer to November, expect Trump and his team to increasingly train their fire on PA and its popular governor (he’s not running against Trump, but if he did, he’d trounce him by 11% in PA).

Now… all the potential contention could actually bolster Shapiro’s name for a 2028 contest.

Right now, Shapiro has cast himself as a moderate and not particularly endeared himself to the activist base (remember, he called for the firing of the University of Pennsylvania’s president and supported a GOP-led voucher program before eventually backing down on that one).

But in the “common enemy” era, a GOP onslaught against his task force, with Shapiro’s name thrust in the nightly news, could raise his profile and popularity with Democrats of all varieties.

In the event PA again proves pivotal and Shapiro holds the line with his task force, a) how many segments would he get on Maddow and lefty sites (lots) and b) how much would the GOP brand him as the bete noire of the Deep State (extreme – one can only imagine how ugly on the far right it could get with Shapiro’s Jewish background. “Globalist” meme possibilities are endless).

In short, this is the kind of fight a moderate like Shapiro could certainly use – he wouldn’t have to alter his ideology, but could score major points with every ideological wing of his party.

*By the way, PA’s Secretary of the Commonwealth, Al Schmidt, will be leading the security task force, but would that actually make a difference to a GOP angry at PA’s outcome?

Not likely. He’d probably be branded a RINO, in the vein of Brian Kemp or any Republican who defied Trump’s attempt to decertify the 2020 results.

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