In a Truth Social post, Donald Trump finally added former competitor Nikki Haley to what seems to be his permanent blacklist, which has significant implications for Haley’s future 2028 presidential prospects.

Trump and Haley obviously have a complicated history.

She left his administration in 2019 in apparently good graces with the president (The New York Times notes she was particularly close to Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump) and seemed to stay largely above the fray of contentious politics, respected by establishment Republicans and the diplomatic world at broad, if not MAGA’s isolationist elements.

At the time of her departure, Trump said, “She’s done a fantastic job…. we’re all happy for you in one way, but we hate to lose you.”

And note just how friendly Trump was in this joint appearance discussing her resignation, in which the president said she’d been “very special to me” and “done an incredible job” in her role.

“She’s a fantastic person, very importantly, but she also is somebody who gets it…. hopefully, you’ll be be coming back at some point.”

In resigning without apparently significant friction (there were some private disputes over potential sanctions on Russia but they stayed mostly in-house), Haley was in somewhat rarefied air, considering many of Trump’s high profile administration officials were fired or resigned in protest.

In fact, it’s hard to think of a higher profile name beginning, serving, and ending their tenure, who were simultaneously respected by the president, establishment Republicans, and international diplomatic allies alike.

But not surprisingly, that all changed when she ran against him for president, and during the course of the campaign answered what had been the big question looming over her political future – would she run representing a clean break from Trump or try to court the MAGA wing as a less-Trumpian Trump (it’s notable that the answer wasn’t clear, even after the January 6th riots, when even her criticism of the president was relatively muted, calling it “not his finest hour“).

That question was impeccably handled by Tim Alberta in this wonderful piece “Nikki Haley’s Time for Choosing.

Well, she answered that question in the 2024 nomination race.

She didn’t just break from Trump in her 2024 run, she also served as his harshest critic in the race and, as such, became the vessel for the hopes of the Never Trump movement, including GOP members of the Senate.

Haley’s bid lasted until after Super Tuesday’s results — long after her fellow competitors had dropped out and endorsed Trump in an apparent bid to retain their future relevance in the MAGA movement.

In fact, even after it was clear Trump would win the nomination, Haley remained in the race, as if a voice crying in the wilderness, and the longer she stayed, the dimmer her future prospects within the MAGA movement.

And thus, over the primary, her bid took on the aura of a symbolic and not competitive one, which is a key difference.

Trump is known for granting forgiveness for competitive bids that turn into eventual embraces. But symbolic opposition that seem more about principle than winning? Not so much.

And true to form with her clean break, when Haley finally dropped out after Super Tuesday, she notably declined to endorse him with CBS News noting at the time.

Two sources close to Haley say she is eager to remain part of the GOP conversation, is proud of being the last contender standing against Trump and is not ruling out anything moving forward. Her top allies believe her run cements her as the standard bearer for traditional Republican values.

In other words, she’d finally decided on a path – she would not embrace Donald Trump in the way his former competitors did, and thus, seemed consigned to the establishment lane forever, at her own choice.

Even though she finally endorsed him in May of 2024, it hardly came with the show of fealty expressed by his former opponents, as Haley told the press:

“Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me, and not assume that they’re just going to be with him, and I genuinely hope he does that.”

At first, there was speculation of a unity ticket wherein Trump would pick her as Veep, addressing his perceived shortcomings with women and centrists.

As the convention approached, there appeared to be late momentum for the potential alliance, but Donald Trump Jr. blasted the idea, calling her a “puppet of Democrat billionaires and warmongers,” while Tucker Carlson’s opposition to her was so deep that he even went so far as to say he wouldn’t vote for Trump if he chose her.

In the end, of course, Trump passed her over, but Haley still attended the RNC convention and offered a strong endorsement speech, which nevertheless failed to change MAGA’s impressions of her.

And indeed, Haley continued criticizing him when she felt it was appropriate (even in the month prior to the election), while supporting his bid for president and offering to help campaign for him, though the request from the Trump team apparently never materialized, and it turned out that Trump did just fine with the demographic Haley was supposed to help him with.

Post-election, Haley hosted a weekly radio show on SiriusXM from September 2024 through inauguration day that was consistent with her messaging during the general election. She didn’t turn up the volume on her support for Trump in the afterglow of his win, nor did she generate much in the way of criticism beyond her normal concerns.

In short, Haley – who’d long been speculated as a more politic and ambitious political figure – seemed to finally decide and follow through with conscience-based messaging.

No, she never went full Liz Cheney, but she never embraced MAGA, either.

The big question for her career moving forward was whether the deep opposition to her from key voices in the MAGA movement would extend to Trump himself, who for all his bluster, is far more globalist in policy than the isolationists fueling his movement.

After all, Haley never attacked Trump in the way Liz Cheney, General Mattis, Mitt Romney, or John Bolton did.

In short, Trump didn’t seem to have blacklisted the competitor he called “birdbrain” during the course of their campaign.

Well…

Now he officially seems to have blacklisted her.

With this Truth Social post, Trump lumps her with the Cheneys and Romneys and Milley’s of the world.

2028 TAKE-AWAY: If Trump’s second term turns into something of a success, it’s not clear whether Haley runs in 2028 and almost impossible to see how the new, populist Republican party embraces her.

Does Haley hold particular working class appeal? Not according to her 2024 race, where her outperformance came from college-educated moderates – not lower income or Hispanic voters.

The only scenario where Haley is a viable candidate, again, comes from the prospect of Trump’s second term coming apart and a more traditional Republican party re-emerging.

While the first part of that scenario is an open question, the traditional Republican party is starting to look increasingly unlikely to re-form – even in the absence of a Trump disaster.

Nevertheless, if it does, no one could claim to have offered a more consistent message, beginning in the 2024 race through now than Haley.

[Screencap: Haley and Trump, after she’d announced she’d be leaving his administration.]

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Ahead of a likely meeting in California today, here’s a pretty interesting exchange between CA Gov. Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump five years ago, during another episode of fires in California.

Trump was in between re-election campaign stops, giving remarks recognizing the California National Guard, when the two foes met to discuss the fires in a briefing.

Around the 45:30 mark, Newsom acknowledges California’s poor history of forestry management while respectfully disagreeing with Trump on climate change.


“We can agree to disagree and I appreciate your frame on the politics of this, but let me just acknowledge a few things briefly…. there’s no question when you look past this decade and looking past a thousand plus years that we have not done justice on our forest management. I don’t think anyone disputes that.

…. We acknowledge our roll and responsibility to do more in that space, but one thing is fundamental. 57% of the land in this state is federal forest land. 3% is California. So we really do need that support.

…. We obviously feel very strongly that the hots are getting hotter, the dries are getting drier… something’s happened to the plumbing of the world and we come from a perspective, humbly, where the science is in and the evidence is self-evident — that climate change is real and that is exacerbating this.

So I think there is an area of at least commonality on forest management, but please respect – and I know you do – the difference of opinion out here as it relates to this fundamental issue on the issue of climate change.”


To which Trump responds, “Sure, absolutely” and moves on.

By the way, this wasn’t the first meeting between the two.

Back in 2018, the two met (Newsom was governor-elect of California) and surveyed Northern California fire damage and Politico noted at the time it was “after trading barbs all year.”

As for this round of fires, “trading barbs” would be a fairly sanguine characterization as things seem more intense between the two, but Newsom does plan to meet with Trump when he lands in the state, although it’s unclear whether the two will do more than that.

Politico notes that Newsom is trying to cool temperatures on the dispute by saying he has “a lot of relationships in the Trump world; a lot of relationships of trust. I communicate with a lot of folks around him, folks that have his ear and influence.”

Newsom is in a tricky spot. As with other states going through natural disasters, California is in desperate need for federal help and Trump has made it quite clear current or potential future aid might depend on changing course in his preferred direction on forest management and other issues.

That’s a practically unprecedented politicization of a natural disaster from a federal perspective, and it’s forcing Newsom to openly grapple with the usual implicit political nature of disasters like this.

Considering the stakes for his state, the upcoming 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, and Californians’ hope for aid, I would expect Newsom to be diplomatic and potentially deferential in his meeting with Trump today. After all, that approach seems to work pretty well with Trump.

[Hat tip: A PBS fact-check of Trump’s claims on the fire included a link to this video. The video is an interesting bit of cultural history, too, with Newsom wearing a mask and Trump, maskless].

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On a Wednesday night appearance on Sean Hannity’s Fox TV show (just two days before the two meet!), Donald Trump criticized CA Gov. Gavin Newsom and his state’s management of the wildfires, and said his upcoming host “looked like an idiot” when discussing sanctuary cities.

In case I didn’t mention, they meet tomorrow. Oh, I did.

As for the California wildfires, Trump attacked California’s water policy and forest management policies, claiming that he talked with the leaders of Finland and Austria who said “they lived in a forest” and were a “forest nation” and, thus, needed better mitigation.

“You have to clean the floors of the forests,” Trump said, claiming that California had failed to do it and that it looked like a “nuclear weapon” had gone off in the Southern California region.

“That thing [wildfires] went for four or five days. Nobody was even fighting it because they didn’t have any water, their fire departments aren’t funded properly…. I remember when Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newscum [intentional sic there] were debating on your show and Newsom’s talking like ‘everything’s great, just great, just great’.”

…. I’ve never seen anything like it. We looked so weak.”

Trump then suggested he’d make aid contingent on California water policy (would he do this for a swing state or red state?).

Here’s video, via Fox News.

A lot to unpack, but let’s talk first about Trump’s comment that he’s spoken with the leaders of Finland and Austria about their forest management.

Well, he did, in fact, discuss it with Finland’s president back in his first term – and The Washington Post had a good read in 2018 on Finland’s forest management techniques (which include controlled burns) that, nevertheless, don’t offer a super clean 1:1 with California.

For example, Finland is closer to the Arctic Circle and has lots of rain and snow. California is not close to the Arctic Circle and is getting drier.

That’s worth repeating, but I won’t. Its implications are obvious.

PBS has done a good job fact-checking some of Trump’s current claims about California’s wildfires.

(And note: If you’re a conservative, you’ll probably roll your eyes at a PBS fact check. If you’re liberal, you’ll read it. If you’re somewhere in the middle and interested, you’ll click on various links, do some research, and find that answers aren’t clear. It seems conservatives are over-simplifying the problem while liberals are often beholden to special interest groups that have made it politically difficult to implement some important preventative measures. But mostly, just as in Florida, this is a nature-can’t-be-tamed-phenomenon that’s getting worse and needs a drastic overhaul).

So what’s Gavin Newsom been up to (it’s notable that Trump referred to the governor as both Newsom and his favorite insult “Newscum” during the interview).

Yesterday – as if preparing for the visit – Newsom’s office put out a statement detailing “all the actions Governor Newsom has taken in response to the Los Angeles fires,” which you can read here.

He has also called for “the critical need for partnership” with the Trump Admin and promised that “where our principles are aligned, my administration stands ready to work with the Trump-Vance Administration to deliver solutions” for Californians affected by the fires. Politico noted that this came after Trump called on “Gavin Newscum” to resign as governor, and blasted the city’s response to the disaster.

In the wake of Trump’s inaugural slam on Newsom’s response to the fires, the CA governor tweeted out this.

Newsom has also announced that 5 major banks are offering mortgage relief payments for 90 days, and issued an executive order barring LA County landlords from evicting tenants housing wildfire victims.

San Francisco Chronicle has a good breakdown: “Trump’s war with California is already raging. Here are the biggest battles coming.”

And… a favorite below.

KEY READ: Washington Post’s Maeve Reston: “Newsom faces complex politics, GOP criticism over L.A. fires.” Newsom “has alternated between sparring openly with Republicans” while also moving “to the right on key measures meant to speed up the recovery, both physical and psychic.”

2028 TAKE-AWAY: It’s cynical and almost crass to talk politics at a time like this, but it’s naive to the point of irresponsibility to assume that there aren’t massive politics involved in the upcoming meeting. Republicans have turned the fires into a politically charged issue, so denying politics is impossible (and the politics of forest management etc is, well, politics). And does anyone think Trump and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott would be squabbling over hurricane relief to, say, Galveston?

Even with the wildfires as tragic backdrop, the Trump-Newsom meeting will be watched closely, as Newsom is the closest thing Dems have to a 2028 frontrunner at the moment.

So what will the meeting look like, what will be said, how will each side frame it, and most importantly, will they get things done for those who need it most? After all, that’s the best thing morally, for both sides politically, and for the United States.

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In his interview with Andy Mehalschick of 28/22 News, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro expresses willingness to work with President Donald Trump on issues they agree with, and says that he wants to use energy to help create jobs in Pennsylvania areas that have been left behind.

Further, Shapiro says there’s an achievable balance between protecting the environment and unleashing the potential of energy.

Here’s the relevant exchange.


ANDY MEHALSCHICK: One of []Trump’s themes during the campaign was “Unleash American energy” and he mentioned Pennsylvania quite a bit – the whole fracking controversy with Kamala Harris. What’s your take on it, meaning when it comes to Pennsylvania. Do you have any concerns about that at all, because you’ve been really on top of the gas industry also, but what do you think moving forward?

SHAPIRO: I’m an all-of-the-above energy governor. I want to make sure that we utilize our unique standing… when it comes to energy to be able to create jobs and economic opportunity, particularly for communities that have been left behind.

…. It’s important to me that energy be central to the work that’s being done in Washington, and it’s certainly central to our economic development strategy here in Pennsylvania.

ANDY MEHALSCHICK: Could there be too much use of natural gas industry, too much less regulation. Are you concerned about that, at all?

SHAPIRO: I think if you go talk to any responsible gas company, they want regulation, but they want it to be consistent and fair across the board. And I think our administration in Pennsylvania has struck the right balance, protecting the environment, protecting people’s health, and also making sure that we can use our unique standing on energy to propel…. to create more jobs.

I hope that that balanced, all-of-the-above energy that we’ve taken in Pennsylvania is what the Trump Administration will adopt in Washington.


2028 TAKE-AWAY: Of course, one of Harris’ huge liabilities in 2024 was her flip-flop on fracking, and Shapiro’s moderate stance on energy was highlighted as a selling point for Veep, according to Axios. As Axios reported, he’s looked to build alliances with natural gas companies as governor, after having targeted them as AG.

One of those most important alliances split environmentalists in the state, but Shapiro is standing on relatively safe ground, at the moment, for 2028.

The Democratic party can ill-afford another crumble of blue wall states, and while leftward primary voters might not be for Shapiro’s “all-of-the-above, balanced” approach, they’re certainly mindful of the damage Harris’ flip-flop caused the party in 2028’s blue wall states.

And IF Democrats continue with South Carolina as their first state in the 2028 nominating primary (read here about the tussle over that), the intricacies of energy aren’t likely to play much of a role, starting off.

Here’s vid of the exchange, from 28/22’s interview.

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Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed 16 new bills on Tuesday, including a party-line measure that will require health insurers to cover cover contraception in the state.

In addition to the headline grabbing measure, Whitmer signed another party-line measure, HB 5436, that will allow pharmacists and not just doctors to prescribe birth control. Democrats claim there’s a shortage of OB/GYNS in Michigan (Yes, there is, I checked), and giving pharmacists this authority would enable more women to actually get the birth control that health insurers are now obligated to cover.

There are a number of other measures she signed, many of which passed with strong bipartisan support, but others that didn’t.

For example, HB525 requires health insurance companies to give customers rebates if they don’t spend the minimum amount on care.

Republicans mostly opposed the measure, Democrats supported it, and Whitmer signed the bill. More on that in the 2028 take way.

2028 TAKE-AWAY: Of course, Whitmer can add many of these measures to her list of things she’s accomplished to enhance access to reproductive care, but I’d like to mention something.

As we’ve seen since Roe’s reversal, abortion is a winning electoral issue for Democrats, but not enough to tip the scales at the presidential level (see Harris, Kamala).

However, abortion remains a complicated issue for many Americans, and they are already quite aware of party differences. It would be smarter, politically, for Democrats to focus on other aspects of their reproductive agenda that might garner far more support, and help with an overall message that they care about more than just the right to abortion.

For example, take the law requiring that insurers cover contraception. It’s a measure that doesn’t have even have the word abortion in it (except that fewer abortions would take place with more contraception) and it combines two things that most Americans are on board with: health insurers covering more things + greater access to birth control.

In fact, 71% of Americans support OTC birth control options (which is even more ambitious than Whitmer’s bill enabling pharmacists to Rx it), including a large majority of Republicans. Slam dunk issue.

Or, for example, HB5826, which incentivizes training to become a doula – a specialty any woman who’s given birth certainly knows of, and someone any pregnant mom would most certainly love to have at her side. Republicans mostly opposed the bill, while Democrats and Whitmer supported it.

If Whitmer and Democrats were to build a more nuts and bolts, kitchen table policy on this (and many other issues) it might add meat to the bones they’re desperately lacking right now in terms of messaging – the idea that Democrats care more about the people than the insurance companies or the money.

Democrats can start to move the needle on a narrative change through less talk on abortion and more talk on expanding access to birth control and incentivizing doulas.

Finally, the biggest slam dunk issue in all 16 bills she signed is the measure designed to give customers rebates on money they didn’t use on their insurance coverage. Insurance companies might have every reason to balk (they need to make a profit), but if it’s a question of electoral politics, it’s a winner.

Will any Democrat figure this out before 2028 or will they just remain content to be the “abortion party” and leave it at that?

If Whitmer were smart about it, she’d talk the insurance side of things more.

Here she is on X, talking about her moves.

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In a new interview with 28/22 news, PA Gov. Josh Shapiro obviously doesn’t rule out or rule in running for president in 2028.

No surprises there.

The interesting thing to note is that he seems to imply that he took himself out of the running to be Kamala Harris’ Veep.

Shapiro tells 28/22: “I think they [Pennyslvanians] also saw this summer just how much I love this job and how I don’t want to leave it.”

Interesting.

Soon after Harris picked Walz, CBS News Philadephia reported that Shapiro had called Harris and expressed reservations about potentially being chosen, but is he inching his way towards publicly declaring that here?

Let’s get back to that, but first here’s the relevant exchange in the interview.

ANDY MEHALSHICK: Do you have your sights set on, at all, maybe running for president. Some people say that probably if you were on the ticket, maybe the Democrats would have won the White House. But moving forward…. what do you think?

SHAPIRO: Look, I love what I do as governor. I’m so damn proud to be the 48th governor of Pennsylvania and I work my tail off and I think people see that in Pennsylvania. They see me showing up in their community, working hard, and putting points on the board, and delivering real results.

I think they also saw this summer just how much I love this job and how I don’t want to leave it. I’m proud to keep doing this work as governor…. I think the model for what we’re doing here in Pennsylvania can be a model for the other states in terms of being able to look to us on how to make progress.

ANDY MEHALSHICK: Are you ruling it out or not ruling out?

SHAPIRO: I love being governor.

Okay, so there’s the exchange.

Now back to the very interesting implication from Shapiro himself in a public forum that he, in some form, rejected Veep.

After Harris picked Walz, there was widespread speculation over why she might have passed on Shapiro, who was seen as a much more effective Veep pick by pundits.

Some said Harris passed over Shapiro because he was Jewish and the party’s far Left was currently in the grips of a “River to the Sea” movement that might have fiercely objected (“Genocide Josh” was a nickname the far left circulated).

Or she passed over him because she a) simply didn’t get along as well with him as she did Walz and b) worried about his ambition.

CNN did a very good piece of reporting on the latter theory.

Shapiro – who was favored by some of the Democratic Party and anti-Trump Republicans as a more moderate selection – did not go over as well with Harris’ team during his vetting interview, sources familiar with the process told CNN. While Walz came across as deferential and cooperative, Shapiro struck some as overly ambitious, with “a lot of questions” about what the role of the VP would be.

And while Shapiro did “very well” in his in-person meeting with Harris on Sunday, multiple sources said, Walz was seen as a pick that would come with less drama and palace intrigue – both on the campaign trail and, if they win in November, at the White House.

“It was a striking contrast” between the two, said the source familiar with the meeting.

Meanwhile, as I said earlier, CBS Philly reported that Shapiro privately expressed reservations to Harris, after sensing their meeting didn’t go well.

Shapiro’s team felt the Harris interview did not go as well as it could have, according to multiple sources familiar with the vetting process. On Sunday following his interview, Shapiro called the Harris campaign and expressed reservations about leaving his job as governor, the sources said.

Of course, there’s never just one reason why someone is or isn’t chosen, but it seems that it was many things that led to Harris picking Walz.

But until now, I’d never heard Shapiro himself, in a public forum, imply that he turned down the gig.

Either way, he’s probably better off for 2028, having avoided being on the losing ticket.

Here’s the video, courtesy of 28/22 News:

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order today that aims to curtail Californians’ access to controversial ultra-processed foods and investigate food dyes.

Newsom’s official statement:

“The food we eat shouldn’t make us sick with disease or lead to lifelong consequences. California has been a leader for years in creating healthy and delicious school meals, and removing harmful ingredients and chemicals from food. We’re going to work with the industry, consumers and experts to crack down on ultra-processed foods, and create a healthier future for every Californian.”

You can read more about the specifics here, which include potentially adopting higher standards for healthy school meals, recommend ways to “reduce the purchase of soda, candy, other ultra-processed foods” and provide formal recommendations to the governor’s office.

2028 TAKEAWAY:

One year ago, this would’ve been viewed as another “liberal California statement,” but ever since RFK Jr. became a rightwing icon of sorts and Donald Trump responded in kind by tapping him as head of HHS – this is now quite uncontroversial.

In fact, The Los Angeles Times titles its piece on Newsom’s move, “Newsom aims to limit unhealthy food in California, getting ahead of Trump Administration and RFK Jr.”

Though Newsom didn’t mention Kennedy, the Democratic governor of California is planting a preemptive flag around the issue and signaling his refusal to concede the terrain to the incoming Trump administration.

LA Times writers’ Julia Wick and Taryn Luna then do, indeed, note Newsom’s numerous previous efforts to junk food additives and target dyes, and no governor can credibly claim to have addressed this issue more directly.

Thus, what might have hampered Newsom among the internet influencers years ago and hurt his general election chances – well, in this case, it might actually help him. Both in a Democratic primary and general election.

By the way, if you want to read more about ultra-processed foods, check out the American Medical Association’s page, which includes compelling research studies, detailing the potential health hazards they pose.

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After Joe Biden officially blocked the takeover of U.S. Steel (Pennsylvania-based company) by Nippon Steel (Japan-based), PA Gov. Josh Shapiro released a statement, pledging to work “with all parties involved” to protect steelworkers jobs from threatened layoffs.

Here’s his official response, delivered via X and his state government page.

The New York Times has a good read on the fallout of the deal’s falling apart, including the potential for fraying a bit the U.S.-Japanese relationship.

That seems overblown.

But here’s the thing that’s not overblown – this further signals both parties’ isolationist bents, which reflects the US population as a whole.

2028 TAKE-AWAYS:

Shapiro is in a tricky spot.

On one hand, powerful union interests in Pennsylvania and throughout the country oppose the deal. The very name U.S. Steel provokes a powerful visceral response for Americans and the union workers Democrats desperately hope to win back (the company was founded in 1901 and played a huge role in WW2 efforts).

Even the iconic Pittsburgh Steelers logo is based on the Steelmark logo, originated by US Steel. So this is no everyday acquisition target.

On the other hand, as governor, Shapiro has to take seriously the threat that the blocked acquisition could lead to a loss of jobs.

U.S. Steel’s CEO David Burritt told CNBC in September of 2023 that, “while it may sound sexy for it to be a company that stays the same, we won’t be able to succeed without Nippon.”

He said the transaction would save jobs, and pointed to Nippon’s commitment to invest $2.7 billion in U.S. Steel’s struggling mills as an example. When asked why U.S. Steel cannot make these investments, Burritt said the company has an obligation to shareholders.

If workers are laid off, that bodes poorly for Shapiro. Unemployment in a key region (western PA) might rise.

If he supported the deal, that would bode poorly for Shapiro – if not on the merits – then certainly the optics, as he campaigns nationally in 2028.

The only silver electoral lining for Shapiro is that Donald Trump also promised to block the deal, so it has no shot of succeeding and there’s bipartisan presidential opposition to it.

Shapiro certainly wouldn’t score points in a 2028 primary if he supported the deal, and he probably won’t lose any points in a 2028 general election, considering the GOP’s current isolationist bent.

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Today, Joe Biden officially blocked Japan-based company Nippon Steel’s takeover of Pennsylvania-based U.S. Steel, citing national security implications.

The move is sure to please unions, and Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman took to Twitter after Biden’s move and cited his concern for workers in strongly opposing the deal.

Btw, when this was first discussed, Fetterman cited national security implications (“steel is always about security”), so — in effect — his opposition has to do with unions + national security implications.

2028 TAKE-AWAY:

Fetterman’s name doesn’t pop up much on 2028 presidential lists, but I think he’s worth following, and a fellow Pennsylvanian who most definitely IS interested in 2028 (Gov. Josh Shapiro) has approached the issue of the takeover more delicately.

If there were some scenario where the two squared off (I’m doubtful), then Fetterman would probably gain some bragging rights among union workers for being a more steadfast opponent of the deal.

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Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock has been selected to the powerful Senate Finance Committee, an important position that can help burnish his 2028 credentials.

Warnock’s official response (news release here) to the assignment demonstrates the immediate talking points he’ll be able to deliver.

“I will be a guardian on the committee against any efforts to gut critical safety net programs like Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare… against expensive tariffs…. against any massive tax cuts to the top one percent at the expense of working families.”

As befitting the committee post, he highlights economic issues.

Notice that he’s framing them in a way that might be appealing to the working class: Protecting safety nets, fighting potentially inflationary measures (i.e. tariffs), and something that never polls well — massive tax cuts for the top.

Warnock then stresses to point out that he’s a “pro-business Democrat” and that he’ll work across the aisle to “support our businesses large and small and bolster the middle class.”

2028 TAKE-AWAYS:

It’s interesting that Raphael Warnock explicitly calls himself a “pro-business Democrat” which a) implies there’s a wing of Democrats that isn’t pro-business (something that wing would dispute) and b) tries to get some distance from that faction.

That might be a function of being senator in a purple state that leans red and has economically benefited from attracting businesses fleeing higher tax states (here’s a prominent example).

It also might be a function of how he intends to cast himself as a 2028 contender – someone in the more centrist Democratic lane.

Incidentally, his Senate voting record matches that positioning, thus far. He was ranked by GovTrack in 2022 as the “most politically right compared to Senate Democrats” (98th percentile), and joined bipartisan bills the second most often compared to other Senate Democrats.

In fact, here’s a super cool little graph showing his ideology score (as reflected by Senate votes) and, yeah, he’s squarely in the middle.

Either way, there’s really only upside to Warnock’s appointment to the Senate Finance Committee. It doesn’t deal with cultural hot potato questions, and leans into things the Democratic party needs to address to help win back working class voters.

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