Politico’s Christopher Cadelago has a tremendous read on Gavin Newsom’s rather obvious 2028-y trip to South Carolina, which is now home to the first Democratic primary in the cycle.
South Carolina going first next cycle couldn’t be huger for Democratic candidates, hungry in 2028.
The South Carolina primary demographic is much (much) more heavily African-American than Iowa or New Hampshire.
In the 2020 SC primary, 56% of Democratic voters were black (and Biden won 61% in a crowded group). Pete Buttigieg won 3% of blacks, and yet took 16% of whites.
Compare that with Iowa, where 91% of Democratic voters were white, and Buttigieg won the whole thing.
The Democratic party saw the obvious problem: A key constituency in its national base did not like Pete. Yet their voice wasn’t being represented in the first real primary race of 2020.
Nominate Mayor Pete, a young white, openly gay man, and you risk losing a large portion of your national base.
Much smarter to choose a primary as first-up that at least considers the voice of a key constituency.
Enter South Carolina.
Of course, while smart, that poses problems for a liberal governor of California, whose state’s rather secular social values don’t align nicely with South Carolina’s Democratic electorate and disproportionate black vote.
So to state things crudely – if you want to be a successful national Democratic candidate, you have to prove yourself with African-Americans like never before.
Gavin Newsom (with the hair, secular values, state record, and liberal pedigree) seems a natural fit for the Iowa and New Hampshire primary, but if he’s going to stop the bleed among African-Americans that Joe Biden is currently experience against Trump, he’s going to have to prove himself there.
After all, black flight from the Democratic party might not be a one cycle anomaly.
So Newsom made a trip there, last week, ostensibly to talk up Biden, but also connect with local black leaders.
Some choice moments from the Politico piece:
“Doesn’t he look much better in person?” asked state Sen. Margie Bright Matthews, a Democrat from Walterboro. Onlookers roared at the backhanded compliment, as she continued to swoon. “Oh my God, as we say in the South, ‘that’s a nice glass of tea.’”
What follows is Newsom’s attempt to connect with other skeptical black voices, even deploying his personal friendship with Snoop Dogg with some local teens, emphasizing his tough times in life, and then getting into policy with deep meaning to his constituency.
He talked Republican efforts (in Florida) to recast slavery as something but (“they tried to erase Rosa Parks in social studies books”), and pointed out social justice issues that weren’t the product of an Ivory Tower but the lived experiences, through history and present, of the South Carolina black electorate.
In short, he adapted his message.
He didn’t chat about the stuff ultra rich white liberals in New Hampshire (who’ll vote Democrat in a general election) get fired up about — green energy, all that.
It showed his ability to read an electorate, adapt his message, and see if he connected, despite his obvious disadvantage of looking like a wine and cheese liberal from that most wine-and-cheese of states, California.
Cadalego finishes with this anecdote:
In Allendale, a former state representative announced to the room of Democrats that he expected they would see Newsom again in a few years — as a presidential candidate.
That was on the mind of Arnetta Hulan, who relayed the same thought as he finished.
“It’s a feeling that you get when people are in your presence,” explained Hulan, an Air Force retiree. She graduated high school in 1967, Newsom’s birth year.
“It doesn’t matter whether they are tall, dark, handsome. It doesn’t matter what race they are,” she said.
Cohen, the mayor, was standing closeby. He said Newsom’s answer about Biden’s age and abilities was fine. He wished the governor could have gone into even more detail.
“I think that’s going to be our next president in 2028,” the mayor said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/26/gavin-newsom-biden-south-carolina-00138005
It’ll be interesting to see how the other candidates fare on their first trips – particularly ones you’d suspect being outside their natural base in South Carolina.
In other words: guys like Mayor Pete and, to a much lesser but real extent, Josh Shapiro.
NOTE: Here’s a video from local TV station, WJLC. Note the voter in Bluffton who mentions the homeless situation in California but seems open to Newsom.
[PHOTO: Newsom, not in South Carolina, but with the governor of New Zealand. Hey, public domain. You do what you gotta do]
