Over Super Bowl weekend, Donald Trump shocked political observers and possibly JD Vance himself when he explicitly denied in a Fox News interview that he viewed the vice president as his natural heir.
Here’s the transcript.
BAIER: Do you view Vice President JD Vance as your successor – the Republican nominee in 2028.
TRUMP: No, but he’s very capable. I mean, I don’t think – I think you have a lot of very capable people. It’s too early. We’re just starting.
BAIER: But by the time we get to the midterms [2026], he’s gonna be looking for an endorsement.
TRUMP: A lot of people have said this has been the greatest opening – almost three weeks – in the history of the presidency.
Trump then pivoted to his own current presidency and Baier didn’t follow up on the pretty stunning comments regarding Vance.
Here’s the video below, and some observations.
Take-aways:
First, Trump just opened the 2028 race wide open.
Every vice president since Dick Cheney has eventually run for president, and Cheney was considered a brief exception to the rule that veeps are generally going to run once their bosses are done.
In fact, that’s the main reason why you take the gig, which, devoid of context, is a thankless job and comes with huge downside risk but upside reward for your future aspirations. It’s mostly just a positioning step for the presidency.
The consensus was that, in choosing Vance, Trump was picking the natural successor to MAGA.
Vance was young, parroted Trump on pretty much everything ideologically, and aped the president’s style nearly to the extent of obsequiousness (the Haiti thing in the 2024 election was particularly audacious).
Further, Vance’s path forward in 2028 only seemed obstructed by the possibility of a politically dismal second Trump term.
Otherwise, he had already united the incredibly rich tech world that leaned Republican (one of the things Trump admired when he picked him) and managed to maintain to his credibility and appeal with populists. That’s not easy.
Further, as of last week, he seemed to be making gains on one of his weaker points – forming relationships with more traditional Republicans in the dying “establishment” wing of the party (which can hardly be credibly viewed as the GOP establishment, but is still deemed with that term).
In a GOP primary, those Never Trump In The Primary but Okay, Fine Trump voters in the general election matter.
Haley only got as far as she did because she ran up the score with Never Trump voters in the primary. So, depending on the state and available candidates, in 2024, it yielded slightly north of 20%.
But in the Fox interview, Trump completely nixed the prevailing narrative of Vance as successor that had JD’s stock way ahead of everyone else in a 2028 nomination race.
Look at this sentence from Trump: “I think you have a lot of very capable people.”
That basically says, “Let the best candidate win in 2028! It’s an open nomination!”
He then says it’s too early to talk 2028. Baier very credibly pushes back that in just two years, Vance will certainly be looking for an endorsement.
That observation gives Trump a chance to amend his response, but instead he affirms it by simply changing the subject and letting his “it’s too early” and “I think you have a lot of very capable people” political bombshell stand.
We know Trump talks off-the-cuff a lot, but the fact he so explicitly deflected and didn’t want to talk (he always wants to talk) about the Vance 2028 thing other than to throw the race open — well, that’s pretty intentional.
If there was a JD Vance stock, it just fell 20% overnight and one potential candidate soared (more on that later).
Further, if Trump’s shocking demurral weren’t as consequential and humiliating enough on its own, Vance has had to endure pretty rough headlines from the exchange.
Fox itself titled its post: “Trump reveals whether he sees JD Vance as his successor.”
The ostensibly neutral but come-on-they’re-actually-conservative-now Daily Mail: “Trump gives stunning response when asked if he views JD Vance as his political successor.“
Bloomberg: “Trump says ‘No’ When Asked If Ready to Name Vance as Successor.”
Newsweek: “Donald Trump declines to endorse JD Vance as 2028 Republican Successor.“
The conservative New York Post: “Trump reveals he doesn’t yet view JD Vance as his successor in 2028: ‘No, but he’s very capable’.”
The liberal New Republic’s take: “Trump just utterly humiliated JD Vance.”
The Independent: “Trump gives withering response to whether JD Vance is his successor.”
The Economic Times: “Donald Trump snubs JD Vance as 2028 Presidential successor.”
In other words, the consequence of what Trump did is widely acknowledged, and hence why JD Vance’s stock has fallen, and the 2028 Republican nomination is now scrambled.
Second, there’s already chatter about one of the most curious and under-chatted phenomenon of 2024.
When Trump picked the very young Vance as his natural heir, the assumption was that Trump’s own very aspirational, political, and influential son Donald Trump Jr would pass on 2028.
After all, Trump Jr. lobbied hard for his dad to pick Vance, and why would Trump Sr. put a young Vance in pole position for 2028 and heir to the Trump legacy if Trump Jr. had intentions on being the 2028 guy and heir?
So Trump’s selection of Vance quieted chatter about Trump Jr. carrying on his dad’s legacy in the Oval Office (for the time being).
But now?
Well, why else would Trump open up the 2028 race?
It doesn’t make sense that he’d open it up for Ron DeSantis or Vivek or any other MAGA rival he faced in 2024 and ultimately defeated. Certainly not Nikki Haley who remains blacklisted.
Vance didn’t even run against Trump in 2024. He was loyal.
It simply makes no sense that Trump would give any candidate other than Vance the benefit of the doubt. Unless…. that candidate was Trump’s own son, Donald Trump Jr.
Who better to carry on the Trump legacy than an actual Trump?
Vance will never be named JD Trump, no matter how hard he tries to ape his boss.
So ask yourself: Would Trump rather see his legacy extended by his son — someone with the literal name of Trump — or by a guy who once loathed Trump but then came around and loyally supported him. There are plenty of people in the latter category. None in the former category.
This development squarely puts Donald Trump Jr. in the 2028 conversation.
It doesn’t mean he’ll run. He and Vance are very close.
But brotherly love rarely matters when two ambitious people can see “Most Powerful Person in the World” within their realistic grasp.
Third, while the above is the most probable explanation of Trump’s demurral, maybe it’s as simple as Trump simply hating all this talk of a successor, because it reminds him that he can’t run again himself.
In fact, as the New York Times Maggie Haberman noted yesterday, he’s ramped up his ostensible jokes that he’d like a third term in 2028 and if his approval stays decent, you never know what fights are in store on that front, and by naming a successor or even talking about it now, he’s removing himself from the equation of… being his own successor.
No matter what, JD Vance’s stock just fell in a big way. It’s hard to imagine Vance being any more loyal to Trump than he’s been. This absolutely ensures it. Any kind of fracture is too dangerous for Vance, who now knows he’s on much thinner ice than he probably ever thought possible.
[Photo: JD Vance taking the oath of office, Public Domain]
