Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race this week, and promptly endorsed Donald Trump.
Here’s just how shocking but inevitable the train wreck of his candidacy was: DeSantis’ home state Tampa Bay Buccaneers lasted longer this season than the gov.
Now, starting this presidential primary and football season, who would have ever thought Baker Mayfield and Crew would be in the game longer than DeSantis?
I’m not going to state the obvious about his departure (until the end), but instead provide you with a smattering of obits.
Ben Shapiro, a notable backer of DeSantis, reaffirmed his conviction the Gov would have made the best president, but said the writing was on the wall and that it’s time to coalesce around Trump. I was half wondering if Shapiro might take his time to urge the coalesce, but no, even if it’s grudging — it’s still going to be real.
The Guardian’s David Smith remarked that DeSantis banked his campaign on the war on woke, and failed to realize that the pandemic was over and inflation was not (well, even if CPI indicates it’s coming down). And the war on Disney? He talked more about that than the war in Ukraine. Disney was a petty feud, not an intercontinental crisis. The big fuss made DeSantis seem small.
Jim Geraghty at the National Review notes that DeSantis spared himself from (even more) humiliation by dropping out before the Florida primary. Good point. Imagine coming in a distant second in a home state, where you’ve enjoyed a brief fiefdom.
Rolling Stone put together a list of all the times DeSantis evoked cringe (a very common theme to his campaign’s arc and narratives, and very true, and an absolutely fundamental and fatal liability to his candidacy from the start). Margaret Hartmann adds to it.
Over at The Atlantic, Paul Farhi makes a good point: “Fox News Isn’t A Kingmaker: If it were, Ron DeSantis would be the Republican front-runner.” Very true. Shocking to an extent, but not at all to another extent. Did Fox ever think it was powerful enough to take down Trump?
Candace Owens called it “great news” and Megyn Kelly wants him to run in 2028.
As usual, The Dispatch’s Nick Catoggio has the best take, but it’s behind a paywall.
A potential 2028 competitor, Gavin Newsom, said his sparring partner saved his political future by dropping out now.
Business Insider wondered if he ran the worst campaign ever (well, relative to expectations).
If you’re interested in politics, you’ve read all the stuff about why the campaign failed etc.,
2028 Implications: Everything. And this failed attempt at 2024 was something. Something big. DeSantis doesn’t seem to have gained many new fans, unlike other failed primary campaigns in the past. In fact, he lost support. That’s not a good sign for a candidate going forward.
Republicans used to be a get-in-line kind of nominating party. They’re not anymore. John McCain lost to George W. Bush, but won the 2008 nomination. Mitt Romney lost to McCain in 2008 but set himself up as the front runner and nominee in 2012. That’s just not the way it is anymore.
DeSantis is going to struggle to raise money. Both because he failed with so much of it, and because he squandered it, structurally.
Every candidate has his or her moment, and sometimes they can stretch a few cycles. But DeSantis’ moment was so singular to this time.
Chris Christie had a brief window in 2012, and backed away. 2016 was even worse for him and 2020 worse. Scott Walker had a moment after his battle with the unions.
In fact, DeSantis’ failure has often been compared to Scott Walker’s, but Walker wasn’t nearly as well-funded, or universally known as DeSantis. It was never Front Runner vs. Scott Walker. He was just another among the group of impressive candidates in 2016 who were torn to shreds by Trump.
Then there’s this for DeSantis. Having been defeated so thoroughly by Trump, it seems the big question looming over DeSantis 2028 is not what D does, but what Trump does or does not do for DeSantis.
Just as in his state primary campaign for governor, DeSantis’ political future will probably be determined by Trump’s whim. If Trump forgives him, DeSantis can try. If Trump commends him, DeSantis can compete. If Trump endorses him, DeSantis can win.
DeSantis’ future seems more affixed to Trump’s will than any other candidate’s because this was Trump vs. DeSantis, and by failing and then endorsing Trump, DeSantis offered up his political future.
Should she fail, Haley will likely endorse, too. But she’s attacked Trump, head-on, while DeSantis waited for the end, and everyone knew it was the end, so the attacks came from desperation, not strength.
This isn’t to say he can’t win in 2028. It’s merely to say that he probably can’t win unless Trump allows it.
Also, did he become a better candidate during the course of the 2024 season? Doesn’t seem so. Likability, warmth, true engagement. Those were always going to be his true obstacles as a national candidate.
