Nikki Haley

During a CBS interview that aired on Sunday, Nikki Haley said she was on “standby” and “happy to be helpful” to Donald Trump’s efforts by campaigning for him.

To wit:

“He knows I’m on standby. I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that [campaign for him]….. whatever he decides to do with his campaign, he can do that. But when I called him back in June, I told him I was supportive. I think the teams have talked to each other a little bit, but there hasn’t been an ask of yet. But you know, should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

Apparently, Trump has not asked.

Last night, Bill O’Reilly did the rather unusual thing of calling out the former president, claiming it’s a “mistake” to neglect Haley’s offer.

O’Reilly then cited Haley’s potential appeal with women.

That shortchanges Haley’s capital significantly.

Shortly before Iowa caucuses, ABC News noted that Haley’s strongest demographics in polls, thus far, were college graduates and men. Yes, men. Not women.

And college graduates. A group Republicans have been bleeding.

Looking at CNN Exit polls you’ll see a common theme emerge:

Iowa: She was nearly as strong with men (19%) as women (21%), and ran stronger than Ron DeSantis among those with a college degree, and defeated Trump among moderates by 41%.

New Hampshire: Haley beat Trump by 8% among those with a bachelor’s degree, 24% among those with an advanced degree, and 52% among moderates/liberals.

South Carolina: Haley beat Trump by 1% among those with a bachelor’s degree, by 19% among those with an advanced degree, and by 43% among those calling themselves moderate.

The Haley Voter is pretty clear: A college-educated moderate, more likely to be female, but not by much.

Exactly the kind of voter Trump needs to win a close election. Which is why O’Reilly is right.

If Trump chooses to reach out and Haley then hits the trail, that would a) be national news b) possibly earn him a few more votes as she stumps strategically in, let’s say, the Carolina suburbs and b) endear her (a bit, perhaps, possibly) to the MAGA base she desperately needs to be kinda sorta okay with her in a potential 2028 run.

In her Sunday interview with CBS News, Nikki Haley said JD Vance’s 2021 comments on childless women leaders were “not helpful” and told the GOP, broadly, to “stop it” with the insults and bring the election back to policy.

Here’s the relevant part of the transcript, via CBS News:

MARGARET BRENNAN: So we know that since Vice President Harris entered the race, the gap among women voters has grown to a now double-digit lead for her over Donald Trump, according to our CBS most recent survey. So how do they close that? Because just as recently as last week, JD Vance said he’s disoriented and disturbed that the head of the most powerful teachers’ union in the country doesn’t have a single child. He continues to say things that certainly are highlighted as being offensive to women. That is going to hurt, won’t it, with female voters? 

AMB. NIKKI HALEY: It’s not helpful. It’s not helpful. I mean– 

MARGARET BRENNAN: Is he an- an effective messenger for the policies you say they are stronger on?

AMB. NIKKI HALEY: I think that the policy- look, you can either look at style or you can look at substance. I choose as a voter to look at substance….. The substance is cutting taxes, making housing more affordable, immigration, national security, that’s the substance. The style is- no, it is not helpful to talk about whether women have children or whether they don’t. It’s not helpful to say any of those things that are personality driven or anything else. I have- I have said that, and I will continue to say to Republicans, stop it. That’s not helpful. You know, if you want to talk about things, stick with policy.

Americans are smart. They don’t need all of this other noise to distract them. They just want to know how you’re going to help them. And they’re- you know, what I would suggest to every American, look at the records of each of them. We had an administration of each of them. We had a Harris administration, we had a Trump administration. And then look at what they say to us now, and make your decisions off of that. And I think when you look at that, you- you’ve got some stark contrast there.

2028 implications: That’s not going to endear her to the MAGA elements she would need in 2028, but three things to remember.

First, Haley’s comments were coupled with a vigorous defense of Donald Trump’s agenda.

Second, it’s possible (probable) that Trump also cringed at the electoral implications of Vance’s comments on women, though reporting on whether he regrets his pick and Vance’s style is mixed.

Third, if Trump loses, suddenly Vance becomes a front-runner for 2028 and if (when) Haley runs, she’ll probably remind voters – in one way or another – of all the ways Vance became the most unpopular vice presidential pick in history.

Oh, a fourth: If you want a good read on the “childless cat lady” trope, here’s a deep dive from NPR, which traces it back to a Victorian Era trope and how the anti-suffragist movement used the image to try to keep women from gaining the right to vote.

Video via CBS.

Nikki Haley tells Margaret Brennan of CBS News that she’s let Donald Trump’s campaign know that “I’m on standby,” if he should ever ask her to campaign for her.

Brennan follows up by asking what exactly she means by “standby,” and whether she’s advised him in preparation of his debate, and Haley seems to indicate that her team and Trump’s team have had a dialogue since June, but “there hasn’t been an ask yet.”

Here’s the relevant portion:

“He knows I’m on standby. I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that [campaign for him]….. whatever he decides to do with his campaign, he can do that. But when I called him back in June, I told him I was supportive. I think the teams have talked to each other a little bit, but there hasn’t been an ask of yet. But you know, should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

Harris has been his most muted and apparently reluctant surrogate (and to even call her a surrogate seems like a stretch. Let’s call her a supporter).

And she continues to criticize his campaign, in real-time.

In the same interview, she hammered JD Vance’s 2021 comments on childless, female leaders, disagreed with his support for government or insurance-mandated IVF treatment, and has made it abundantly clear that she supports Donald Trump’s agenda in contrast with Kamala Harris’, without walking back her criticisms of Donald Trump the man.

Moving Forward: Trump is famous to forgive political opponents who bend the knee, but has been less willing to make friendly with Haley – probably as a mirror to her own reluctance.

Just a few weeks ago, Trump was on a downward trajectory in polling, thanks for his terrible standing with female voters, but with Trump’s recent boost in swing states, it’s less clear he needs to deploy Haley as a centrist female voice to potentially reach that cohort.

But Haley appeals to more than just females. She’s centrist-friendly to men and women who don’t like Trump or the Democratic agenda, and beloved by old-guard Republicans who don’t like the party’s embrace of populism.

But recent polling suggests Trump is firming up his numbers with all elements of the GOP and a Sunday NYT/Siena poll found more Americans viewing him as a centrist candidate than Kamala (Read Nate Silver’s good analysis of why her 2020 campaign could cost her this one).

So it seems less likely Trump will deploy Haley unless she offers a full embrace. Which doesn’t seem likely at this point.

2028 implications: The continuing, most fascinating question: Will Trump ask Haley to join him in a second administration? He would only do so if he knew she’d say yes. So would she?

Or is she going to continue to strike this balance between supporting many of his policies, while withholding defense of the man, and staying just close enough to him to quell his anger, but far enough that she can credibly remove herself if he implodes.

Full interview below.

Nikki Haley unleashes a tweet hammering Tenet Media co-founder and now-fired BlazeTV host, Lauren Chen, who was implicated as part of an alleged Russian disinformation scheme, meant to influence the right wing with pro-Russia talking points.

Karma's a bitch, @TheLaurenChen https://t.co/puoAHammPa

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) September 6, 2024

So here’s some context to Haley’s dig.

Chen, as the tweet noted, famously labeled Haley “America’s Last Neocon” for the former presidential candidate’s unwavering support for Ukraine (generally) and for the clip (specifically) below from a 2023 Townhall meeting where Haley made the case for funding.

To wit:

.@NikkiHaley should move to Ukraine and run for its presidency then.

Spare us the America Last Neocon talking points. https://t.co/czRVF0WYdc

— Lauren Chen (@TheLaurenChen) June 5, 2023

Chen’s post was viewed by 3.8 million and the popular rightwing influencer went on to tweet this follow up: “America’s border is wide open and under siege. The last thing people in America need to be concerned about is Ukraine’s border.”

That, of course, distills the Republican isolationist view on Ukraine over the past couple years. Its effectiveness comes from presenting the right wing with a fundamental choice: either protect the U.S. border or protect the Ukrainian border.

Those are the “only two options” and if you’re truly America First, whose borders matter more?

That argument is paired with the on again-off again nature of the populist’s concern about the deficit. “We can’t spend money on both efforts. Look at the national debt. Don’t you remember the Tea Party Movement? We’re still its heirs.”

So it’s an anti-Ukraine message that speaks uniquely to the Republican grassroots through two issues.

Haley and members of the older GOP guard have been fighting the idea that protecting the borders of both Ukraine and the United States is somehow incompatible. Mostly, they’ve been losing that fight.

Now what: Of course, Chen and Tenant’s alleged role in the Russian disinformation scheme doesn’t mean a populist rightwing is going to abandon its isolationism. Haley probably feels it’s a brief moment of vindication, yet it remains to be seen whether it’s just that — a brief moment. And it’s unlikely to change the populist wing’s message on Ukraine.

2028 implications: Even though it’s doubtful anybody will remember this brief episode, it’s part of the continuing arc of Haley’s apparent post-2024 strategy of holding firm on her foreign policy convictions (making her even more attractive to the centrist wing of the party), while she somehow tries to make that work with the elements of MAGA she’ll need in a 2028 campaign.

Thus, in the same week, she’s both blasted a popular right wing influencer and also noted on CBS that she’s on “standby” for Trump’s reelection campaign and “should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

The Haley Path is one of the most fascinating to watch.

The big question – would Trump ask her to serve again in his administration and would she do it?

[Photo: by Gage Skidmore, Wikipedia].