Glenn Youngkin

Just two days before Thanskgiving, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has released a new video on X, calling on all incoming members of President-elect Trump’s cabinet to set up their homes in Virginia (the video has over 238,000 views in less than a day).

To all the new members of @realDonaldTrump’s administration relocating to the area to make America great again, I am personally inviting you to make Virginia your home. pic.twitter.com/pAkwkoWurR

— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) November 26, 2024

So what?

Here’s what.

First, the video speaks to the incoming president’s popularity.

Youngkin famously won his surprise gubernatorial bid in the blue state by keeping Trump at arm’s length during his 2021 campaign and waited to endorse Trump in the GOP primary until after it was more than clear Trump would be the nominee (post Super Tuesday, and with the “it’s time to unite” endorsement that usually means “less than thrilled”).

However, as the 2024 general approached, speculation grew that Youngkin might be a Veep pick and Trump, in a bid to flip Virginia, worked (and seemingly succeeded) at building a connection with the VA gov.

Just three years ago, it was almost unthinkable that Youngkin would be releasing a video like this, but then again, a lot of people didn’t imagine Trump would be gliding to another solid win in the electoral college, on the backs of a pretty remarkable coalition.

Emerson’s latest poll shows Trump entering his second term, polling at 53% favorability with Hispanic voters, 28% of black voters, nearly half of female voters, and an >50% rating with voters under 30 years old. Not to mention a 61% rating with men.

And remember, Virginia was relatively close.

Harris only beat Trump by 5% there, and Youngkin doesn’t have to run for another gubernatorial term, and has no reason to shy away from Trump.

The second subtle note, and I’m not sure if this is intentional — Youngkin’s pitch assumes that Trump’s Admin will be populated by fresh-to-DC types (why else would they be moving to the area?). It fits with the “drain the swamp” messaging.

As for Youngkin’s future?

He’s made it clear he has future ambitions.

If he makes a run for Senate, he’d have to face Mark Warner, which wouldn’t be easy.

A 2028 presidential run wouldn’t be easy, either. If it’s going to be a MAGA-heir race, he’s behind a lot of other names.

If Trump crashes in his second term, perhaps Haley is the front-runner and Youngkin would seem a top 3 in the non-MAGA lane.

But MAGA, at some level, will remain hugely influential no matter how Trump fares the next four years, and perhaps Youngkin is betting that he can earn enough good will with the movement to build some sort of coalition in 2028.

Won’t be easy, though.

The Texas Tribune has a lengthy chat with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and asked the question we all want to ask, but know he won’t answer. What about his future?

Well, he answered by not answering, which is an answer, in and of itself.

Relevant portion from full i/view below.

TEXAS TRIBUNE: What are you gonna do when you’re no longer governor? There are two lines of thought. One is that you’re going to run for the Senate in 2026 and the other is that you’re going to run for president the first time that nomination is available….are you going to run for the Senate, are you going to run for the President? What are you going to do?

YOUNGKIN: If I can, first, step back – one of the crazy things in the political world is that everybody wants to know what you’re doing after you finish the job that you’re currently in. And I have a firm belief that the most important thing I’m doing is the job I’m in. I think we have to continue to stay focused on that.

He went on to make it clear that he believes politics isn’t politics but public service, which, to me, sounds like: I want to pursue further political options.

The Senate is a tough one.

He’d be facing a general election campaign against the powerful former governor and current incumbent Sen. Mark Warner.

Warner has won three races for the seat, most recently winning by 12% in 2020, which was slightly better than Joe Biden’s slice of the vote in the state.

Knocking off Warner would be awfully tricky.

Similarly, Youngkin was clearly seen as a non-MAGA potential Veep pick, and would seem to start off a ’28 presidential race in the old-guardy lane (even though he’d strain to not appear that way). Haley would have the early name recognition and appeal there.

So what does he do once he’s termed out in ’26?

Politico’s Jonathan Martin offered a great read on his future prospects recently and came to the conclusion that Youngkin doesn’t seem interested in a Senate run, despite the inevitable effort from national Republicans to recruit him, and that there is a potential path to the presidency and that runs directly through another Trump admin.

Martin:

Youngkin, though, is also a businessman to his core. The word that invariably comes up talking to people who know him is: optionality. It’s also the word that came to mind when I saw the picture from their meeting this week of Youngkin and Trump, the former president flashing an I-got-him smile and thumbs up.

It was a reminder that the more likely step forward for Youngkin would be to improve his standing with Trump and vie for a cabinet post should the former president win in November. O’Malley, the former Youngkin adviser, said the governor would make an ideal Treasury secretary because of his knowledge of markets and ability to drive a public message.

And there are some in Trump’s orbit who tell me Youngkin could have a role in the administration, even if vice president isn’t on the table.

What’s for certain to many of those who know Youngkin, though, is that there’s an end goal.

Scott told me that when he attended the Kennedy Center Honors late last year with Warner, the two encountered David Rubenstein, the former Carlyle Group CEO who worked with Youngkin at the private equity firm.

Rubenstein, Scott recalled, said Youngkin is focused on one objective: becoming president.

I think the Trump Admin option is the key.

If he serves in a potential sequel Trump Admin and Haley doesn’t, maybe he leap frogs her in terms of relevance and Trump’s good graces, while traditional Republicans secretly know Youngkin isn’t a MAGA guy, deep down?

Who knows?

The most intriguing thing to watch for him and Haley is a) whether Trump invites them to serve in a second administration b) whether they say “yes” and c) how they strike a balance between being themselves and going full MAGA.

Full i/view with Texas Tribune below.