Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has declared March 11-April 9 as the month of Ramadan in Michigan.
TV6:
“The month of Ramadan has always been a time of deep spiritual reflection, increased charity, long nights filled with prayer, and time shared with family and friends,” Governor Whitmer said. “This year, a traditionally joyous holiday feels different, as Michigan families also come together to pray for lasting peace amid so much suffering in Gaza. We mourn with Michiganders who have lost loved ones. Michigan is stronger because of the Muslim community, and we will continue to wrap our arms around you and wish you a blessed Ramadan.”
Let’s get to the politics – because this announcement is substantial.
Michigan is a must-win for Joe Biden, and his pro-Israel stance on the war has famously cost him significantly with Muslim-American voters, who are a small but important voting demo in Michigan.
In fact, if you look at RCP’s aggregation of Michigan polls, you’ll see a clear flip from lean Biden to lean Trump, post the Hamas attack.
Prior to Hamas’ attack, Biden led in 5 of 7 Michigan matchups with Trump – the other 2 were ties.
After, Trump has led in 11 of the 14 polls, Biden only one, and there have been two ties.
In other words, something seems to have changed in October. Based on this math, the change can’t be coming entirely from Muslim-Americans, because the bloc just isn’t big enough. However, the conflict has reverberated through every demographic and if you add discontent from young people, along with other blocs, you can see how the flip could happen.
The race is still close (Trump is at +3.6% in the RCP average), but too close for Biden’s comfort, considering he won Michigan in 2020 by nearly 3% and now he’s looking up at Trump by 3%.
Enter Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Whitmer is already seen as one of the top-tier Democratic candidates in 2028.
In the most recent poll of Michigan voters, Whitmer boasted a stellar 61% approval rating in the purple state and here’s what’s most remarkable about that. This is the 6th year of her administration. Usually, this late in, voter fatigue sets in.
So no matter the outcome of the 2024 race, she’ll be a top-tier player in 2028.
However, helping deliver the state for Biden could be massive for her. Both as an electoral achievement and political showcase.
After all, it’s easy for Gavin Newsom to watch Biden stroll to victory in California. But both Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Whitmer are going to be forced to deal with purple state dynamics and all the requisite messiness and alacrity to navigate those waters.
The New York Times’ Mitch Smith does a deep-dive on just how important Whitmer is to Biden — noting that she’s popular with the demos Biden needs to come out and support him: moderates, suburbanites, and black leaders in Detroit. That’s the winning coalition for Biden. And as for Muslim-Americans, Smith notes Whitmer has had to perform a delicate (and, at times, clumsy) balancing act, but it’s important to note that it’s not just Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in her state, watching. It’s also young people (leaning Hamas), and centrists and moderates (pro-Israel).
That’s the trick.
Democrats will be watching Whitmer – both as a test case for their own response, and a test for the 2028 campaign.
[Photo: Public domain]