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Glenn Youngkin wants Trump picks to choose Virginia

by Christian November 27, 2024

Just two days before Thanskgiving, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has released a new video on X, calling on all incoming members of President-elect Trump’s cabinet to set up their homes in Virginia (the video has over 238,000 views in less than a day).

To all the new members of @realDonaldTrump’s administration relocating to the area to make America great again, I am personally inviting you to make Virginia your home. pic.twitter.com/pAkwkoWurR
— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) November 26, 2024

So what?

Here’s what.

First, the video speaks to the incoming president’s popularity.

Youngkin famously won his surprise gubernatorial bid in the blue state by keeping Trump at arm’s length during his 2021 campaign and waited to endorse Trump in the GOP primary until after it was more than clear Trump would be the nominee (post Super Tuesday, and with the “it’s time to unite” endorsement that usually means “less than thrilled”).

However, as the 2024 general approached, speculation grew that Youngkin might be a Veep pick and Trump, in a bid to flip Virginia, worked (and seemingly succeeded) at building a connection with the VA gov.

Just three years ago, it was almost unthinkable that Youngkin would be releasing a video like this, but then again, a lot of people didn’t imagine Trump would be gliding to another solid win in the electoral college, on the backs of a pretty remarkable coalition.

Emerson’s latest poll shows Trump entering his second term, polling at 53% favorability with Hispanic voters, 28% of black voters, nearly half of female voters, and an >50% rating with voters under 30 years old. Not to mention a 61% rating with men.

And remember, Virginia was relatively close.

Harris only beat Trump by 5% there, and Youngkin doesn’t have to run for another gubernatorial term, and has no reason to shy away from Trump.

The second subtle note, and I’m not sure if this is intentional — Youngkin’s pitch assumes that Trump’s Admin will be populated by fresh-to-DC types (why else would they be moving to the area?). It fits with the “drain the swamp” messaging.

As for Youngkin’s future?

He’s made it clear he has future ambitions.

If he makes a run for Senate, he’d have to face Mark Warner, which wouldn’t be easy.

A 2028 presidential run wouldn’t be easy, either. If it’s going to be a MAGA-heir race, he’s behind a lot of other names.

If Trump crashes in his second term, perhaps Haley is the front-runner and Youngkin would seem a top 3 in the non-MAGA lane.

But MAGA, at some level, will remain hugely influential no matter how Trump fares the next four years, and perhaps Youngkin is betting that he can earn enough good will with the movement to build some sort of coalition in 2028.

Won’t be easy, though.

November 27, 2024

J.D. Vance’s week in review (November 18-25)

by Christian November 26, 2024

—KEY STORY: CNN: Vance will be Trump’s point person on Capitol Hill. “Tasked….to help oversee his policy priorities and ensure lawmakers don’t stand in the way of enacting his agenda.

Alayna Treene and Steve Contorno also note, in their report.

Multiple people close to Trump and Vance maintained it is too early for the transition team to begin having discussions about what his priorities will be, but insisted Vance will take his cues directly from Trump.

However, Vance has publicly and privately acknowledged the issues he cares most about — particularly the ones he clamored to be a leading voice on during his short time in the Senate.

“In JD’s view, his role of VP is to take on any issue that President Trump would like him to take on,” the person close to Vance told CNN. “With that said, it’s no secret that JD strongly cares about issues immigration, tech, and the economy.”

— Vance went to Capitol Hill to try to to persuade senators to confirm Matt Gaetz and other cabinet picks. Gaetz withdrew his name from nomination later in the week.

— Republican lawmakers may have implicitly criticized Vance for not showing up to vote to block some of Biden’s judicial nominees. Grassroots Republicans (in particular, Grace Chong from Steve Bannon’s war room) were less subtle.

In response: Vance tweeted that he and Trump were interviewing for a new FBI director. He’s since deleted the post, but not before calling Chong a “mouth breathing imbecile.”

My sense: However skillful a communicator in debates and interviews, Vance has thus far, shown a lack of discipline and politic on X. Not that Trump does. But Vance isn’t Trump, and needs to get better at thinking twice before he tweets.

“Do no harm” for Veep picks doesn’t end at the conclusion of an election. It extends to an administration.

Vance will need more than his current roster of support from the tech bros and manosphere in 2028. Or will he?

There’s a pervasive sense that the GOP, now a majority and fronted by some big egos, has to start showing some signs of fracture. The MAGA world unity has been otherworldly the past year and now that the election is done, it’s hard to see it continuing to this extent. Whether and how it does will have so much to say about 2028.

–Finally, an Emerson Poll has a 2028 GOP race at 1) Vance 30% 2) DeSantis 5% 3) Vivek 3% 4) Haley and Kennedy 2%.

November 26, 2024

Democrats Josh Shapiro

Dem Gov. Josh Shapiro’s week in review (November 18-25)

by Christian November 26, 2024

KEY STORY: Josh Shapiro pushes to speed up environmental review on building projects in PA. It’s a shift toward the center and represents compromise with Republican legislature. The Daily Caller bluntly characterizes his PA Permit Fast Track Program” as one that “spurns enviros” and “slashes red tape” while environmental advocates raise the alarm on “red flags” for the movement.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette op-ed board likes the move: “Fast Track is yet another signal that – finally – Pennsylvania is taking economic development, and the legitimate needs of the private sector, seriously again.

Meanwhile the Daily Pennsylvanian, obtaining new documents, notes just how involved the governor was in dealing with U Penn’s controversial approach to the Gaza terrorist attack.

Philly Inquirer: Shapiro takes a trip to a barber shop, talks sports, his “nice, cordial relationship” with incoming Republican Senator Dave McCormick, says he’ll stand up to Trump administration, and reassures concerned Dem who’s afraid to live in a red state now: “You got me, you’re all right.”

What (if anything) will Shapiro do about the US Steel takeover attempt? The takeover has positive implications for PA’s economic development, but national security issues linger over the bid from Japanese company Nippon Steel.

Finally: A 2028 poll shows Dem voters nationally prefer Kamala to other potential candidates (Newsom and Shapiro are a distant 2nd and 3rd). Don’t pay much attention to it as anything much more than a reflection of name ID. However, the fact Shapiro is 3rd shows his ID registers.

November 26, 2024

Andy Beshear Democrats

Beshear bans conversion therapy for minors in Kentucky

by Christian September 23, 2024

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has taken executive action to ban the use of state funds for “conversion therapy” on minors in Kentucky. It comes after the Republican-led legislature has continually blocked measures to end the practice.

Beshear:

“Kentucky cannot possibly reach its full potential unless it is free from discrimination by or against any citizen – unless all our people feel welcome in our spaces, free from unjust barriers and supported to be themselves. Conversion therapy has no basis in medicine or science, and it can cause significant long-term harm to our kids, including increased rates of suicide and depression. This is about protecting our youth from an inhumane practice that hurts them.”

As if to anticipate complaints in the culturally-conservative state, Beshear added that “my faith teaches me that all children are children of God.”

Beshear:

“Today’s action does not force an ideology on anybody,” Beshear said. “It does not expose anyone to anything in a library or school. It simply stops a so-called ‘therapy’ that the medical community says is wrong and hurts our children.”

Sarah Ladd from The Kentucky Lantern notes that the way forward for Beshear’s executive order won’t necessarily be smooth.

One Republican state rep says he’s looking into legal options. Other Republicans in the legislature have hammered Beshear’s move as an overreach that “uses such vague and overbroad language that health care providers are at risk, and children will be left without needed mental health care.”

David Walls, the executive director of The Family Foundation said:

“Governor Beshear’s executive order is an unlawful action that will hurt children, trample the fundamental rights of Kentucky parents, and suppress free religious expression. This order, like previous failed legislative efforts, is designed to promote false LGBTQ ideologies and muzzle Christian counselors, therapists, and pastors from helping children struggling with sexual orientation or gender identity confusion…. Kentucky parents and their children should be free to seek the faith-based counseling on sexuality and identity issues that they need. The Christian message on sexuality and human dignity is not harmful, it is life-bringing.”

“Conversion therapy” is a controversial practice that aims to change a person’s sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression towards a preferred end.

The most straightforward example would be: using various psychological therapies (including aversion therapy and cognitive restructuring, to name just a few of the long list of modalities) to try to change the sexual orientation of someone who identifies as homosexual into someone who identifies as heterosexual.

There are both cultural and religious reasons why some parents have sent their children for therapy, although official numbers suggest it’s becoming increasingly rare in the U.S. with some form of restriction for minors in 23 states.

As of 2019, just 57,000 youth (13-17 years old) are estimated to receive exposure to the practice from any source (including religious or spiritual advisors).

However, it’s difficult to judge the true prevalence of the practice.

Time Magazine reported that 1,300 practitioners still offer the therapy; however, they frequently skirt state laws by offering the practice through religious organizations, which can use religious liberty provisions to shelter them from government action.

Mainstream psychology and health organizations strongly oppose conversion therapy, but it’s often defended on religious liberty grounds by religious conservatives and those opposed to the implications of government overreach.

In fact, a YouGov survey from 2024 found 45% of Americans supporting a ban on conversion therapy for transgender youth, with 38% opposing a ban and the rest unsure.

So popular opinion hasn’t crystallized firmly in one direction or the other. It’s hard to get crosstabs on the issue, but opposition to these bans can’t come exclusively from religious conservatives. There just aren’t enough religious conservatives to make up the 58% of Americans who either oppose or are unsure of their opinion on bans.

My hunch is that Americans are genuinely confused by what a “ban” means.

For example, the headline of Beshear’s move is “state-funded,” but read some specifics of the order, and you’ll see that Kentucky licensing boards can potentially interfere on a broader level than implied.

Any state agency that discovers or receives a report that a provider
certified or licensed to practice in Kentucky engages in conversion therapy
efforts with a person under 18 years of age or performs counseling on
conversion therapy as part of his training for any profession licensed under
a professional certification or licensing board within the Commonwealth
of Kentucky shall report that provider to the appropriate professional
certification or licensing board within the Commonwealth for potential
disciplinary action.

And here’s the problem for getting accurate polling on the topic: Each state words its bans differently, so it’s hard for Americans to form an opinion on something whose definition is vague.

Now, beyond Beshear’s personal beliefs on the matter, let’s consider the political implications for him.

As a moderate Democrat, governing a Republican state, you can see why he’d wait until his second term to issue the executive order.

There’s no sense in provoking a cultural fight in a culturally-conservative state in a first term.

But now that he’s thinking at a national level, he’s probably looking to shake the profile of “Moderate Kentucky Governor Runs for Democratic Presidential Nomination” in a party whose nominating base is increasingly liberal.

Thus, what’s the more compelling argument in a national Democratic primary?

a) “I defied a Republican-dominated legislature to ban conversion therapy in Kentucky.”

b) “I banned conversion therapy in California.”

The first is clearly the stronger talking point, and now Beshear can lay claim to it in a way that someone like California Gov. Gavin Newsom can’t.

Further, there’s no political downside for Beshear.

If Republicans fight the measure, he can show any potential scars to national Dems in 2028 as proof of his mettle.

And if Republicans don’t, then he can claim political skill by arguing that he’s well-suited at advancing progressive measures in a divided America.

You can read the full executive order here and Beshear’s statement here.

Here’s video, via Forbes, of Beshear’s full speech.

[Photo: Public Domain, attribution: Dale Greer]

September 23, 2024

Republicans Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy finally gets a Fox show

by Christian September 17, 2024

Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has officially teamed up with the network that helped turn him from an online sensation into a legit mid-tier 2024 primary candidate for a show called, “Truths with Vivek Ramaswamy.”

The specifics make it seem to be something of a trial run.

It’s only a five episode series, and all five will be available for streaming on September 22. The debut will also run on Fox News at 10 PM on Sunday evening.

In other words, Fox News isn’t in permanent gig mode yet.

Of the limited show, Vivek says:

“Today conservatives know what we’re against. But what exactly do we stand for? To answer that question, we need to talk to every American, not just those who agree with us.”

He’ll be joined on a roundtable by his wife, Apoorva, theoretical physicisist Steven Koonin, Rabbi Shmully Hecht, journalist Matt Taibbi, and Priovant Therapeutics CEO Ben Zimmer.

We’ll see if this turns into something more permanent with the network.

I think that has quite a bit to do with whether he’ll run again in 2028.

His 2024 bid was constantly dogged by the impression that he was merely running for a Fox News gig, and not for president.

And therefore it’s hard to imagine that he’d leave a permanent Fox gig for another run for political office. Fox News pays better, is cushier on the schedule, and he can’t really afford to lose a second primary campaign if he wants to stay relevant.

And continual relevance seems to be what he’s after.

My hunch is that if this show leads to something more permanent, he’ll stay on that course.

[Photo: Gage Skidmore]

September 17, 2024

Mark Gordon Republicans

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon talks compromise

by Christian September 16, 2024

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) had one of the most more interesting primary seasons, wherein he personally put $166,000 to oppose Republicans from the Wyoming Freedom Caucus and support their more moderate opponents.

Unfortunately for Gordan, his efforts didn’t pan out.

The famously conservative group’s candidates prevailed in the primaries and, according to WyoFile, are in the pole position to control the state legislature next year.

That means Gordon will have to work with many Republicans he opposed. Not unfamiliar terrain for a Democrat, but Gordon is a Republican, which makes it particularly awkward.

Maggie Mullen of WyoFile has an interesting chat with the governor about this dynamic and other issues facing Gordon. you You can read the full transcript here, but the crux is that Gordon is now focused on compromise and his top priorities – energy and diversification of the state’s economy, including its exposure to the digital asset space.

Gordon is an interesting darkhorse in the 2028 race, and doesn’t have a clear space, except for now in the centrist lane, which isn’t a great place to be for a primary.

Donald Trump opposed Gordon’s primary campaign for governor in 2018, then further fueled the former president’s ire by rebuffing the president’s personal attempts to get Gordon’s support for an election-oriented bill, calling Gordon “a very liberal guy.”

Further, in 2021, Gordon reacted with disappointment to the state party’s decision to stop recognizing then-Rep Liz Cheney as a Republican for her decision to support impeachment of Trump. He believed the election was presidential election was settled, but left some wiggle room about whether votes were counted correctly.

(There’s been a detente of sorts, between Trump and Gordon, as of late, according to the Cowboy State Daily).

Nevertheless, all those things are hurdles to overcome for the grassroots that dominate GOP primaries.

But there are two things to mention.

First, he is the second most popular governor in the country, as of 2023, with a 69% approval rating. So there’s always that.

More importantly, I’d add a sleeper issue that Gordon could potentially use to his advantage: Wyoming is currently creating its own U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin which it plans to begin using in 2025. The hope is that it will give individuals and businesses faster and cheaper ways to transact, along with providing a new revenue stream for Wyoming.

CNBC notes that Wyoming has passed over thirty pieces of crypto legislation (it’s a tax-free state on crypto earnings too) and of the proposed state-based stablecoin, Gordon told the outlet: “The United States has to address this issue. Washington’s being a little bit stodgy, which is why Wyoming, being a nimble and entrepreneurial state, can make a difference.”

Cryptocurrency is becoming an increasingly political issue, as the industry’s lobbying efforts grow more powerful, and Donald Trump has embraced the industry, claiming he will turn the US into “the bitcoin superpower of the world” and fire the industry’s bete-noire, SEC chair Gary Gensler.

The BBC recently wrote of the growing phenomenon of tech bros lining up behind Trump, and the most famous crypto bro and Trump ally, Elon Musk, is sure to push the issue going forward.

Musk and his like-minded tech leaders made a huge push for Trump to pick JD Vance for Veep, thanks to Vance’s ties to the tech world, which increasingly includes cryptocurrency.

Crypto’s salience as an issue will grow during the next four years, and Wyoming is positioning itself as a key player in that world, and therefore its popular governor will never be more than an Elon Musk tweet away from entering the landscape.

September 16, 2024

Democrats Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg defends Kamala Harris against accusations of flip flopping

by Christian September 16, 2024

On Sunday’s Meet the Press, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg addressed claims by Republicans that Kamala Harris has changed her position on a number of important issues.

Moderator Kristen Welker pointed out three major shifts from Harris’ presidential run that leave her vulnerable to accusations of flip-flopping: her positions on fracking, immigration policy, and Medicare for All.

Welker then asked Buttigieg, “If she’s elected, why won’t she change her mind again?”

The crux of Buttigieg’s answer: she’s changed her mind based on the available data.

Buttigieg:

“You develop your policies based on what you see happening in the world around you and what you’re able to accomplish in Washington. You take the example of immigration. We just talked through what’s changed over the last five years. We could say the same thing on climate. Lots of ideas were being kicked around five years ago, when there was basically zero climate policy during the Trump years. Now, we have a climate policy. It’s called the Inflation Reduction Act. It does not include a ban on fracking, because that’s not the Biden-Harris Administration’s policy.”

Later, Buttigieg said “She’s also a pragmatic person who knows that, you know, the reality of policy is that there’s a give and take around your core values, principles and goals in order to get things done.”

That’s a bit more folksy take on Harris’ changes than I’ve heard (in her famous August CNN interview, Harris took a vaguer “My values have not changed,” and didn’t really put meat on the bones of what that meant), and illustrates Buttigieg’s ease with both television interviews and the townhalls in Iowa that famously propelled his 2020 bid for president.

Buttigieg reinforced the notion that her values haven’t changed, but also added a touch that might resonate with swing voters: “She’s also a pragmatic person” and said it was necessary to have “a give and take around your core values… to get things done.”

That’s politics. Give and take to get things done. And most Americans know it, and the centrist, swing voters who decide general elections want pragmatism and less rigid ideology if it’s meant for the benefit of getting things done (unfortunately for Harris, more Americans currently see Donald Trump as centrist than Harris, according to a recent NYT survey).

During the remainder of his appearance on Meet the Press, Buttigieg didn’t go much further into Harris’ shifting positions, but his slight changes of wording show how skilled a communicator (and potential 2028) candidate he is.

Now a couple things.

As to fracking. There’s an idea that as fracking goes, so goes Pennsylvanians’ choice for the election, but what does polling say?

Unfortunately, not a ton.

The crosstabs of the most recent polls don’t give breakdowns on how important fracking is among likely Pennsylvania voters, which seems an important omission in a state where it’s commonly seen as a make-or-break issue in a make-or-break electoral state (the most likely tipping point state, according to Nate Silver, followed by North Carolina).

The most recent survey on fracking (from 2022) shows 48% of Pennsylvanians supporting it, while 44% oppose it, and there are actually quite heated fractures within PA that reflect some cognitive dissonance. 86% said fracking was important to the state’s economy, but nearly 66% were worried that it put water resources at risk, thanks to spills and well issues.

(And as the New York Times’ Rebecca Elliott reports in a terrific deep-dive, southwestern Pennsylvania is currently facing a dilemma that’s more nuanced than a simple “fracking good/fracking bad” — namely, pricing and how to drive it up in order to access more lucrative markets in the northeastern states.

Therefore, it’s possible that fracking itself is less a particular issue than the symbolism behind it – that Harris a) changes her positions to suit the political winds and b) is more liberal than she’s presenting herself).

But there’s also an Occam’s Razor to all this – if fracking didn’t post a risk to her candidacy, why change her position at all? Why not just stick with the “no fracking” thing? And Josh Shapiro’s middle-ground approach to fracking was one of his key selling points as a Veep candidate. Shapiro has supported it, while calling for prosecution of the problems associated with it. That’s a balance that resonates with voters there, according to one of the state’s most respected pollsters, Christopher Borick.

As for Medicare For All, Axios notes that even the Congressional Progressive Caucus excluded mention of it in its policy agenda for 2025, signaling that progressives themselves know it’s a losing issue right now.

That’s why Welker zeroed in on immigration, fracking, and Medicare for All as substantial shifts in Harris’ policy. Those are the changes of position that pose the biggest challenge for her candidacy.

As for Buttigieg, his rhetorical modification of Harris’ “my values haven’t changed” explanation shows his political skill and exactly why he’s still someone who’ll play a role in a 2028 race.

But there’s still the South Carolina dilemma.

Here’s video of Buttigieg’s full interview on Meet the Press:

[Photo: Public Domain]

September 16, 2024

Nikki Haley Republicans

Bill O’Reilly: Trump should ask Nikki Haley to campaign for him

by Christian September 12, 2024

During a CBS interview that aired on Sunday, Nikki Haley said she was on “standby” and “happy to be helpful” to Donald Trump’s efforts by campaigning for him.

To wit:

“He knows I’m on standby. I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that [campaign for him]….. whatever he decides to do with his campaign, he can do that. But when I called him back in June, I told him I was supportive. I think the teams have talked to each other a little bit, but there hasn’t been an ask of yet. But you know, should he ask, I’m happy to be helpful.”

Apparently, Trump has not asked.

Last night, Bill O’Reilly did the rather unusual thing of calling out the former president, claiming it’s a “mistake” to neglect Haley’s offer.

O’Reilly then cited Haley’s potential appeal with women.

That shortchanges Haley’s capital significantly.

Shortly before Iowa caucuses, ABC News noted that Haley’s strongest demographics in polls, thus far, were college graduates and men. Yes, men. Not women.

And college graduates. A group Republicans have been bleeding.

Looking at CNN Exit polls you’ll see a common theme emerge:

Iowa: She was nearly as strong with men (19%) as women (21%), and ran stronger than Ron DeSantis among those with a college degree, and defeated Trump among moderates by 41%.

New Hampshire: Haley beat Trump by 8% among those with a bachelor’s degree, 24% among those with an advanced degree, and 52% among moderates/liberals.

South Carolina: Haley beat Trump by 1% among those with a bachelor’s degree, by 19% among those with an advanced degree, and by 43% among those calling themselves moderate.

The Haley Voter is pretty clear: A college-educated moderate, more likely to be female, but not by much.

Exactly the kind of voter Trump needs to win a close election. Which is why O’Reilly is right.

If Trump chooses to reach out and Haley then hits the trail, that would a) be national news b) possibly earn him a few more votes as she stumps strategically in, let’s say, the Carolina suburbs and b) endear her (a bit, perhaps, possibly) to the MAGA base she desperately needs to be kinda sorta okay with her in a potential 2028 run.

September 12, 2024

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democrats

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez helps jump start a car

by Christian September 12, 2024

When Mike Casca found out his car battery wasn’t working, he went and found his boss, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to help jumpstart his car.

Casca is AOC’s chief of staff, and as he tells the story in his tweet, his car battery went kaput on the Capitol Plaza, and AOC then went to work while three guys basically watched.

when your car battery dies on the capitol plaza, instead of calling aaa you just need @AOC. pic.twitter.com/VcQpTXWboz
— mike casca (@cascamike) September 11, 2024

Why is that newsy?

First, it was viewed 3.3 million times on Twitter and liked 52,400 times. Now that alone doesn’t cut the standard of this site, but it’s somewhat noteworthy.

But here’s why anecdotes like this matter.

When AOC does this kind of thing, it doesn’t seem fake or inauthentic. It’s part of her electoral appeal. Not because she’s a woman who knows how to jump a battery, but because she’s casually taking on the responsibility like it’s no big deal to her and it’s just life. Kind of like what you’d expect from someone who was still waiting tables and tending bar at a taqueria just six years ago.

It’s hard to imagine populist Donald Trump or even working man’s champ, Bernie Sanders, personally jumping in to do this for their employees. If not from pride, then certainly from the assumption that this isn’t the kind of thing they do or have done in many years (or even know how to do).

Simply put, AOC ran her first campaign for public office and won, in part, on an “I’m like you” image and, despite her expensive dresses and ritzy photo shoots, still does stuff like this that makes it hard to pin “elitist” on her.

Similarly, despite his inherited wealth and privilege, Donald Trump is seen by a large segment as an ordinary working man, and simple things like proudly indulging in fast food help buttress that appeal.

As the authors of Let Trump be Trump, wrote:

“On Trump Force One there were four major food groups: McDonald’s, Kentucky Fried Chicken, pizza and Diet Coke.”

Anecdotes like that and videos like this serve as a counterbalance to his wealth and that matters, electorally.

The same applies for AOC, even though she isn’t enormously wealthy.

In fact, the right wing recently tried to paint her as someone who’s grown fabulously rich off her position in Congress. The meme duly went viral, and the conservative magazine, The Dispatch, promptly did a fact check showing that, no, AOC hasn’t grown wealthy, even by many Americans’ standards.

Alex Demas writing for The Dispatch:

Despite earning approximately $174,000 in pre-tax income per year as a member of Congress, Ocasio-Cortez’s wealth has not grown substantially during her five-and-a-half years in office. Ocasio-Cortez’s most recent FDR—filed in August 2024—show that, as of December 31, 2023, the congresswoman held between $3,002 and $46,000 in total funds across four bank accounts, as well as between $15,001 and $50,000 in debt from student loans.

But while her personal wealth hasn’t grown measurably since her time in office, her political capital has certainly increased.

Over at Politico, Nick Reisman recently detailed her growing alliance with moderates and power brokers in the Democratic party that befits someone with national ambitions and increasing sway. And we’ll see much more of that in the future.

And speaking of the future, Ocasio-Cortez will be 38 years old in 2028. JD Vance is 40 years old.

She’s going to be part of the 2028 conversation.

September 12, 2024

Glenn Youngkin Republicans

Youngkin demurs on Senate, presidential run

by Christian September 9, 2024

The Texas Tribune has a lengthy chat with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and asked the question we all want to ask, but know he won’t answer. What about his future?

Well, he answered by not answering, which is an answer, in and of itself.

Relevant portion from full i/view below.

TEXAS TRIBUNE: What are you gonna do when you’re no longer governor? There are two lines of thought. One is that you’re going to run for the Senate in 2026 and the other is that you’re going to run for president the first time that nomination is available….are you going to run for the Senate, are you going to run for the President? What are you going to do?

YOUNGKIN: If I can, first, step back – one of the crazy things in the political world is that everybody wants to know what you’re doing after you finish the job that you’re currently in. And I have a firm belief that the most important thing I’m doing is the job I’m in. I think we have to continue to stay focused on that.

He went on to make it clear that he believes politics isn’t politics but public service, which, to me, sounds like: I want to pursue further political options.

The Senate is a tough one.

He’d be facing a general election campaign against the powerful former governor and current incumbent Sen. Mark Warner.

Warner has won three races for the seat, most recently winning by 12% in 2020, which was slightly better than Joe Biden’s slice of the vote in the state.

Knocking off Warner would be awfully tricky.

Similarly, Youngkin was clearly seen as a non-MAGA potential Veep pick, and would seem to start off a ’28 presidential race in the old-guardy lane (even though he’d strain to not appear that way). Haley would have the early name recognition and appeal there.

So what does he do once he’s termed out in ’26?

Politico’s Jonathan Martin offered a great read on his future prospects recently and came to the conclusion that Youngkin doesn’t seem interested in a Senate run, despite the inevitable effort from national Republicans to recruit him, and that there is a potential path to the presidency and that runs directly through another Trump admin.

Martin:

Youngkin, though, is also a businessman to his core. The word that invariably comes up talking to people who know him is: optionality. It’s also the word that came to mind when I saw the picture from their meeting this week of Youngkin and Trump, the former president flashing an I-got-him smile and thumbs up.

It was a reminder that the more likely step forward for Youngkin would be to improve his standing with Trump and vie for a cabinet post should the former president win in November. O’Malley, the former Youngkin adviser, said the governor would make an ideal Treasury secretary because of his knowledge of markets and ability to drive a public message.

And there are some in Trump’s orbit who tell me Youngkin could have a role in the administration, even if vice president isn’t on the table.

What’s for certain to many of those who know Youngkin, though, is that there’s an end goal.

Scott told me that when he attended the Kennedy Center Honors late last year with Warner, the two encountered David Rubenstein, the former Carlyle Group CEO who worked with Youngkin at the private equity firm.

Rubenstein, Scott recalled, said Youngkin is focused on one objective: becoming president.

I think the Trump Admin option is the key.

If he serves in a potential sequel Trump Admin and Haley doesn’t, maybe he leap frogs her in terms of relevance and Trump’s good graces, while traditional Republicans secretly know Youngkin isn’t a MAGA guy, deep down?

Who knows?

The most intriguing thing to watch for him and Haley is a) whether Trump invites them to serve in a second administration b) whether they say “yes” and c) how they strike a balance between being themselves and going full MAGA.

Full i/view with Texas Tribune below.

September 9, 2024

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