David Axelrod, with this quote to Politico in Adam Wren’s fantastic read on Pete Buttigieg’s multi-state, multi-coalition, multi-outreach, maximalist approach to building a winning coalition.
“He had a remarkable run in 2020 and ultimately, one of the, perhaps the greatest obstacle, is that he didn’t have much of a relationship with African American voters.”
“And the fact that he’s spending a lot of time communing with Black voters across the country even if in the service of the midterm elections, is a reflection that he’s not headed for early retirement.”
You really need to read the piece because the whole Pete strategy (both philosophically and operationally) is pretty much there, but there’s this continual question that no one likes to talk about, but is one of the most daunting for Pete’s chances: Considering he’s gay, can Pete win enough black voters to win the nomination?
It’s the most ubiquitous, quiet question there is, because it assumes a homophobia among blacks, and progressives fear that accusation against such a valuable part of the Democratic coalition.
But Dems’ bleed in 2024 among Hispanics and Blacks was partially thanks to a leadership and activist base that had gone too far to the Left of Hispanics and Blacks on cultural issues.
Polling shows blacks are more religious than whites, more likely than others to read the Bible regularly, viewing it as God’s word, and thus more likely to be associated with denominations that consider homosexuality a sin.
That’s just the way it is.
It’s a demographic reality, and the Democratic party doesn’t want to say it out-loud, but Pete certainly know the dynamics.
After all, he earned less than 2% of the black vote when he ran for president in South Carolina. That, after finishing 2nd, overall, in Iowa and New Hampshire — which had far fewer blacks voting.
So while Pete’s shown tier 1 operational, rhetorical, and strategic capacity, it’s going to be a “prove-it” issue in much the same way Barack Obama’s was.
And in case you were wondering, Politico noted that a February Emerson poll had Pete running at 6% of the black vote, while Newsom scored 17% and Harris 36%.
That’s not as bad as it looks for Pete. Harris, of course, has sky high name ID, Newsom is up there too, and so Pete scoring 6% isn’t terrible. But of course not great.
And to that end, Wren notes:
Buttigieg has increased his engagement with Black candidates like Greene and the community more broadly, addressing a perceived weakness. In Alabama, Buttigieg joined civil rights leaders and community members in Selma for the Bridge Crossing Jubilee and Anniversary of Bloody Sunday, and made remarks at a unity breakfast and Tabernacle Baptist Church. In Birmingham, he joined a roundtable with business owners from the Historic 4th Avenue Business District.
Now, you couldn’t do better than to read the rest of Wren’s piece because it really shows how strategic Pete is about building a coalition and a winning strategy. It’s all about addition — demographics, venues, messaging, diversity of thought.
He’s not out there looking for the big 12 hr news cycle soundbite like a lot of the other Democratic contenders.
He’s squarely thinking about building a coalition that can win a general election.
And that will have to include a lot of traditionally religious black and Hispanic voters.
