California Gov. Gavin Newsom had a big Sunday South by Southwest featured session, where Network and Chill host Vivian Tu hosted him for a sit down.
Joe Ellet, The Austin Chronicle:
Working the crowd with each word, all Newsom had to do was simply point to the work that Trump’s regime has conducted during his time in office: ICE raids around the country, the rollback of DEI representation, the war in Iran, the tariffs, voter suppression, and more.
“They are putting America in reverse civil rights,” Newsom said. “Voting rights, LGBTQ rights, women’s rights. They want to bring us back, truly. Maybe it’s not even a 1960s world. Sometimes I wonder if it’s an 1860s world.”
He also heavily implied he’d run for president, but only if Democrats win the House in 2028 because otherwise “free and fair elections” would presumably be gone (we know he’d still run, though).
A few notes from his appearance:
He said (clip below from his X site), “If you ask me my identity, I’m a small businessperson…..I’m just impressing upon you my passion for entreprenurism. People have put everything on their line for risk…. that entrepreneurial mindset is about agency — that you can shape the future, that you’re not a victim…. you just gotta show up every single day.”
This is why I flag that: It’s normal to hear a progressive left wing candidate talk about fighting from the bottom, but it’s unusual to hear them use the words: “entrepreneurial mindset,” “agency,” “risk,” and “you’re not a victim.”
That’s centrist 101- talk, and the fact that narrative rolls off his tongue shows that he’s comfortable speaking with a mindset and coded words that would help him in a general election. Not necessarily a primary. But a general.
Small business owners bet everything on themselves. They show up every single day and put everything on the line. I know because I was one. pic.twitter.com/HsRBjNtlBn
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 18, 2026
Newsom posted plenty more clips of what will undoubtedly be campaign messages — minimum wage, the gamification of the Iran war (although that will be less relevant, most likely, come 2028), Oval Office grift (which perhaps will touch Vance), the state of the economy (which can change between now and 2028), and tariffs.
The particular every-green comments, though, are the minimum wage message and the small business one (which his GOP opponents will call foul on because small business owners are often most affected by higher minimum wages).
Regardless, those are issues that will be around in 2028. The rest is headline stuff.
Like calling Trump a “man-child,” “jackass,” and “an invasive species.” Add that to times he’s called Donald Trump a “brain-dead moron who bombs children and protects p*dophiles” in response to Trump’s comments on his SAT moment, and Newsom continues to audition for Troller-in-Chief, which in today’s America just might become the next duty behind a president behind Commander-in Chief.
I don’t think it serves any candidate running against Trump or a Trump adjacent-character great in a general election to descend to name-calling, because MAGA is particular adept in those waters.
But Newsom does a pretty good job on the Trolling Front.
If Trump is a 10/10 on perfecting the proudly crass insult, Newsom gets to 8/10. Not bad. But is that really good for America?
NEWSOM’S TAX CLAIM:
At the conference, Newsom also reframed Florida and Texas as the “real high-tax states” and not California, calling the former regressive.
“Your middle class pays more taxes in Texas than our middle class in California,” Newsom added. “It’s a great mythology – it’s just ‘the richest of the rich come here because they can avoid paying a damn penny.’”
Newsom:
Fox News refuses to report the truth:
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 16, 2026
Texas and Florida are the REAL high-tax states. pic.twitter.com/1PtCN5Uvj8
RCP’s Tom Bevan pushed back:
This is just a blatant, verifiable falsehood. Here's a Wallethub 2025 analysis of the overall tax burden by state:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) March 16, 2026
California is 4th highest.
Texas is 40th.
Florida is 45th.https://t.co/Xb7L4eqGKW pic.twitter.com/thomUTA11S
The aforementioned WalletHub study backing up Bevan, and here’s Hub’s take on what “tax burden” actually means:
Unlike tax rates, which vary widely based on an individual’s circumstances, tax burden measures the proportion of total personal income that residents pay toward state and local taxes.
WalletHub compared the 50 states based on the cost of three types of state tax burdens — property taxes, individual income taxes, and sales and excise taxes — as a share of total personal income in the state.
Newsom’s potential 2028 opponent, Ron DeSantis, said of Newsom’s claim: “There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Then there is whatever you’d call the claim that California has lower taxes than Florida.”
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) March 16, 2026
Then there is whatever you’d call the claim that California has lower taxes than Florida.
Even people who like California governance acknowledge CA is a very high tax state: highest sales, income and gas taxes in the nation. https://t.co/C1P7Awvz7L
Fox Business said Newsom was probably referring to this study from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, ranking Florida and Texas in the top 10 of most regressive states.
ITEP’s analysis focuses on how tax burdens are distributed across income groups rather than overall tax levels. The group argues that states such as Texas and Florida look “low tax” largely because they do not levy a broad-based personal income tax — a structure that disproportionately benefits high earners.
To make up the difference, those states rely more heavily on sales, excise and property taxes, which tend to take a larger share of income from lower-income households. California, by contrast, uses a highly progressive income tax system that places more of the burden on top earners and helps offset regressive taxes lower down the income ladder.
My political take: Voters aren’t going to dive into “tax burden” vs “tax rate” or anything beyond their gut. That’s just the way it is.
Even without getting into numbers, Newsom runs into difficulty here.
Thought experiment for a general election: Who is really gonna buy the idea that California is the place to go if you want to pay lower taxes?
Newsom’s argument might be sufficient for some parts of the Dem base. But it’s going to be a problem for him in the general election if he tries to fight off the most vulnerable part of his record: The fact that most Americans don’t see California as a bastion of low taxes and, instead, view it as a Far Left lab that they’d really like to move to because it’s awesome there except… really unaffordable.
And really unaffordable is on everyone’s mind.
That’s Newsom’s continual weakness as a candidate, but he has a few years to trial run answers for it. Not wonky ones. But ones that resonate with voters.
The reason I focus on their messaging for a general election when ostensibly we’re talking the Democratic primary is that the most viable Democratic candidate for president will be the one who can talk with an eye towards the general election (see the Dems 2020 disaster, where the race to the far left meant that many Dems were saddled with quotes that would hurt them in elections to come).
Btw, here’s full video of Newsom’s appearance.
Trump’s war on Newsom’s dyslexia: Talking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Donald Trump attacked Newsom for his dyslexia for at the least the fourth time in the past week, alone, according to Time’s Rebecca Schneid and The LA Times.
The President of the United States of America said:
“Gavin Newsom has admitted that he has learning disabilities, dyslexia. Honestly, I’m all for people with learning disabilities, but not for my president. Everything about him is dumb.”
To which Newsom responded on X.
To every kid with a learning disability: don’t let anyone — not even the President of the United States — bully you.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 17, 2026
Dyslexia isn’t a weakness.
It’s your strength.
And at a rally the week before, Trump said: “I don’t want the president of the United States to have a cognitive deficiency.”
To which Newsom two-worded him.
"I don't want the president of the United States to have a cognitive deficiency."
— Governor Gavin Newsom (@CAgovernor) March 11, 2026
Too late. https://t.co/dY0iGcIreA
Trump also told Fox News Radio that “presidents can’t have a learning disability” and on a Truth Social post that he was a “Cognitive Mess.”
The LA Times notes the ways Newsom’s dyslexia has actually made him a sharper candidate, known for remarkable recall and ability to absorb vast amounts of detail – something that the Yale Center for Dyslexia and Creativity noted is common for those with the disability:
“While people with dyslexia are slow readers, they often, paradoxically, are very fast and creative thinkers with strong reasoning abilities.”
My take on the ongoing battle over Newsom’s dyslexia:
A) It seems incompatible that in the same riff that Trump claimed empathy for those with learning disabilities, he said everything about Newsom was dumb. Which infers those with learning disabilities on dumb.
B) Trump’s voracious attacks on Newsom seem to infer that he sees the CA gov as the biggest threat to whomever the GOP nominates in 2028. Yes, Trump has frequently attacked AOC (and everyone) and yes, Newsom has trolled Trump at every turn, but there seems to a be particular ire that Trump reserves for Newsom that signals he sees Gavin as his heir’s biggest threat.
And…
C) Even leaving morals aside, which learning disability groups are appropriately lamenting, Trump seems to be on the losing end of a Troll Battle here, which is rare, considering that he’s known for landing nicknames etc that stick and, however inflammatory, do genuine damage to the opposing candidate.
Trump’s battle on Newsom’s dyslexia also helps negate what is one of the most difficult dynamics Gavin has to face – that he’s an out of touch snob. Trump is unwittingly highlighting one of the most compelling aspects of Newsom’s life — the one most likely to make others who stereotype him reconsider. It’s bad politics on Trump’s part.
Consider it a fight on losing terrain. I’m not sure why Trump doesn’t go hard at Newsom’s biggest political weakness (perception of snobbery + governor of California), instead of stake his ground on a learning disability.
My hunch is that Trump will either wisen up, or that he and his team know that it’s bad politics, but Trump might be so full of contempt it’s one of those “Let Trump be Trump” things that even Susie Wiles lets go.
Conclusion: Every Trump insult over Newsom’s dyslexia is a win for Gavin, politically.
Consider, here, Newsom’s wife, Jennifer’s moving X post defending her husband and all those who struggle with a learning disability.
Learning differences do not determine someone’s potential, but making fun of those with them certainly does. pic.twitter.com/blyg5xvEtv
— Jennifer Siebel Newsom (@JenSiebelNewsom) March 17, 2026
I know we’re out of the realm of the real struggles those with learning disabilities face here, but it’s not my job to express mortal outrage on this site. That’s for 99% of other blogs and X accounts to do. It’s to look aside and consider the politics to get a better angle on the race.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes talks with strategists who affirm that it’s probably Trump stress-testing the nickname, along with an acknowledgment that the president views Newsom as a legit threat.
And to that end, I’ll finish on the issue here:
An Emerson poll, taken soon after the back-and-forth showed that Newsom’s favorability polling had actually flipped positive to +2%. That’s a bounce from -11% in Emerson’s last poll, just four months ago (December 2025).
That could be the result of Newsom’s book tour (if so, that means he’s impressing voters on it), or maybe the X trolling, or just an overall brightening in favorability of Democratic candidates.
Regardless, Trump’s continual use of the the bully pulpit to, well, bully a person with a learning disability ain’t great for Republicans and works for Newsom.
Finally, Newsom paid respects to Robert Mueller, who passed away on Saturday night (helpful suggestion to the CA governor: it’s enough to just pay respects without mentioning Trump. The contrast in reactions to Mueller’s passing says everything. Newsom doesn’t have to include that in a RIP post).
Trump despises anyone with a deep sense of duty, discipline, and patriotism.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 21, 2026
Rest in peace, Robert Mueller. pic.twitter.com/DVfjllAXUT
Other things:
A) Newsom supports renaming Cesar Chavez day as Farmworkers Day after the NY Times published allegations of abuse against the former icon of the movement. (Note to Republicans: The NY Times published it, folks. This is why the MSM is necessary. If it had been posted from a right wing outlet, there would have been huge controversy. Instead, reaction against Chavez has been swift, including statue removal, street renaming etc., – even as Latinos struggle with losing an MLK-like icon for the movement. So instead of bashing the MSM at every turn, Republicans should appreciate the fact that this didn’t come from a right wing source).
B) Rememember when Newsom was on Shaun Ryan’s show and Shaun gifted him a pistol? Here’s video of the show.
Well, CalMattters notes that his own state’s laws might make it harder for him taking it home.
I think there are two more important things here.
A) The fact that Newsom is willing to hit up the bro-sphere is vital for any candidate’s 2028 chances. That hurt Kamala badly in 2020, obviously. Mayor Pete has also shown particular ability to enter skeptical confines and charm hosts with his intellect and command of the facts.
B) Keep in mind this quote from Newsom after Ryan gave him the gun, as a sign of his ideological flexibility as situation demands:
“Brother, this is fabulous…. The last thing people would expect is that I respect this gift. … I’m not anti-gun at all.”
Progressive Democrats might have one time winced there. But after the 2020 primary debacle, proudly saying “I’m not anti-gun” is probably the smart move. Note: He didn’t say “pro-gun.” Difference there.
POLLS:
Saint Anselm College Survey Center shows Pete Buttigieg surging ahead of Gavin Newsom in the race for the Democratic primary.
- Pete Buttigieg 29%
- Gavin Newsom 15%
- AOC 10%
- Kamala Harris 6%
- JB Pritzker 5%
- Amy Klobuchar, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear 4%
And at 2% or less: Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, Gretchen Whitmer, Rahm Emanuel 1%, Wes Moore 1%.
Of the surge, remember it’s only 2026, but also it’s notable that, last year, Pete and Gavin were tied in the same survey.
WMUR on the poll (Look at Rubio’s move on Vance – significant. But remember, that’s still a big gap in a state very familiar with Rubio, thanks to his 2024 run).
Btw, here’s RCP’s New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary polling average. Bookmark it! Note that Pete had a 5% lead over Gavin in a UNH poll last month.
Particularly notable in the Anselm Survey for me, as well: Kamala Harris, treading water all the way in 4th place at 6%. Considering she’s already been the Democratic nominee, that’s an awfully poor showing.
Politico’s Jonathan Martin aptly tweeted: “One of the biggest potential 2028 storylines in plain sight: NH will still likely go first and @PeteButtigieg probably has a floor in the low 20s there. Which means he will almost certainly finish in the top 3 in a crowded NH field.”
Meanwhile…
A Berkeley IGS Poll of California Democrats showed Gavin Newsom the preferred nominee for president among CA residents, beating fellow Californian Kamala Harris, substantially. In fact, Harris landed only 4th among voters in her own state.
California Democratic Nominee Preferences:
- Gavin Newsom 28%
- AOC 14%
- Pete Buttigieg 11%
- Kamala Harris 9%
- AZ Sen. Mark Kelly 7%
Newsom’s job approval is only 48% in the state, however.
INTERESTING READ: Axios’ Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein, on how the 2028 Democratic candidates, including Newsom, are leaning into their childhood traumas.
Their frankness about their formative years and family dynamics is a way to shape their public stories before journalists do. It’s also a sign of shifting taboos and a growing desire for candidates to appear relatable to voters.
Yes, authenticity matters more than ever and with politicians not exactly known for that, even incremental gains can move the needle.
OP-ED: NY Times Frank Bruni, “Will A Peacock Like Gavin Newsom Fly?“
“….while I once considered that image a political liability, now I’m not so sure. Yes, it reeks of self-love. But it also announces that he came to play. That he’s ready to rule. It’s a positively Trumpian promise of dominance. Maybe that’s what Democrats feel they need….. Newsom’s strut is working for him…..Let Bernie Sanders orate about oligarchy. Newsom’s a meme machine.”
Newsom’s Press Office X meme of the week:
— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) March 19, 2026
WARNING SIGN: Joe Rogan bashing Newsom over his response to fraud allegations in California. Two things: 1) Newsom has to address this, substantially, at some point and 2) Newsom has to go on Rogan at some point and face his long-time nemesis.
Kalshi Democratic Nominee Betting Odds: March 23, 2026. 26% (1st spot)
