Last week might be considered the week that catapulted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez permanently to the top tier of Democratic candidates for 2028 as AOC continues her “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Bernie Sanders.
Until now, she’s been lurking as a kind of “maybe, possibly AOC?” in some corners of the internet, but this is the week she broke out in the mainstream media – and much deserved, as I’ve been writing about since before Trump was even reelected in 2024.
Here’s a brief look at her big week.
a) AOC revealed that she raised $9.6 million from January through March of the year. What’s most impressive and revealing about her haul is that the average campaign donation was just $21 and 64% came from first-time donors. That’s evidence of broad support among common folks — something that reflects genuine enthusiasm among the Democratic electorate and not institutional donors (institutional $ doesn’t always translate to votes).
Remember, Obama was generating this kind of small-dollar appeal in 2008 while Hillary was, instead, getting the institutional support. We know how that turned out.
Beyond the fundraising and her continuing mega tour with Bernie Sanders (which is drawing impressive crowds in red parts of the country, and according to The New York Times, surprised Sanders himself) the talking head buzz really got going when…
b) Nate Silver and and political podcaster Galen Druke called AOC the early front-runner for the 2028 Dem presidential primary in a “way too early presidential draft.” Silver and Druke noted two things a) her media savvy/charisma and b) broader appeal among the Democratic primary electorate than often assumed. Silver noted the recent poll where she would best Chuck Schumer in a Senate primary and accurately noted “New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate lot.”
Druke talks about it all on MSNBC, where he notably mentions that AOC has, indeed, pivoted towards economic issues, while going quiet on things like abolishing ICE and other, less popular progressive positions she was famous for when she rose to prominence (think Green New Deal, among others).
I’d note something else, regarding the 2028 primary: Imagine all the ’28 candidates, crowded in the early states, in those numerous townhalls that are so clutch in determining the buzz and energy of a candidate.
Now think of candidates like Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, or Gavin Newsom’s holding their town halls right across the street from AOC’s. On a cold, windy day, who’s going to draw the crowd?
That’s not to say townhalls mean everything (Joe Biden didn’t exactly generate much in that regard in 2020), but it does speak to a candidate’s charisma, ability to attract media attention, and generate enthusiasm. That often turns to votes.
c) Kevin McCarthy also called AOC the future of the Democratic party during an interview on Fox News, but said it’s ultimately going to come down to an intraparty fight between the “AOC and Bernie Sanders” wing vs. the “Joe Biden/Kamala Harris/Nancy Pelosi/Schumer and Hakeem [Jeffries]” wing.
The winner of that tussle, McCarthy predicted, will become the “leader of the Democratic party.”
Now listen to this next bit, which is going to be the big knock on AOC from Republicans and, perhaps, concerned Democrats who don’t want to be seen as too far left in a 2028 general election.
McCarthy:
“Remember, AOC and Bernie Sanders are socialists. They literally registered as socialists. AOC came into the party campaigning for Bernie Sanders… this is how far the party has moved. And it shows – they are more at home going to a Latin American country than fighting for a hard-working American.”
If AOC is the nominee, expect Republicans to go hard at the fact that AOC did, in fact, form a close association with Democratic Socialists of America, worked to gain their endorsement, and, in 2021, was referred to by the organization as “DSA’s foremost socialist superstar.” She catalogues her own history with the movement here and it’s well worth the read.
This is going to be something she’ll have to deal with in a country where “socialist” can be electoral kryptonite in a general election. Or… even a Democratic primary (as Bernie Sanders learned the hard way).
What is AOC going to say about all this? How will she address it? Will she lean into it or shy away from it?
d) On his Real Time show this week, Bill Maher shot back at the idea of AOC as the Dem’s 2028 nominee: “It shouldn’t be her. It shouldn’t be her.”
e) A Yale Poll of national Democrats showed AOC running a very close second to Kamala Harris in the 2028 Democratic primary. Harris clocked in at 27.5%, Ocasio-Cortez 21.3%, and Mayor Pete 14%. Gavin Newsom drew 6.4% and Josh Shapiro 4.6%.
Most of these early surveys are Name ID checks, and so it’s understandable that Harris would rank first. What’s concerning for Kamala is just how tenuous that first place hold is, with AOC just a few percentage points behind.
f) MUST-READ: Axios’ Alex Thompson breaks down everything you need to know about AOC’s buzz in his piece “AOC seizes the moment as Dems seek a new identity.”
Money quote from AOC, while attending a rally in Folsom, California, which is represented by Republicans in the state house (although Biden squeaked out a narrow win in 2024):
“I don’t think this is Trump country — I think this is our country.”
Expect to hear that line a lot more from AOC.
Finally…. here’s full video of Sanders and AOC’s rally from Missoula, Montana.
