Last week, Melissa Nann Burke of the Detroit News reported that potential 2028 candidate, Pete Butttigieg, has ruled out a run for governor of Michigan and “is very seriously focused” on a potential run for Senate in 2026 to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. So does that mean he won’t run for president in 2028? Not necessarily, says Politico.
However, it does make it seem less likely for a number of reasons, although a win would put him in great shape for a 2032 presidential run (more on that later).
But first, he’s got to actually win the Senate seat.
Semafor has a fantastic deep-dive into any such nascent Democratic primary campaign in Michigan if Pete were to run.
The crux: With his high name ID and favorability in the state, along with his natural political skill and impressive fundraising, he’d instantly be among the top two in a primary campaign. He also brings in
In fact, a polling memo this week shows Mayor Pete dominating the field, winning 40% of the vote, while the second closest challenger, Dana Nessel, clocks in at just 16% (a host of other names get single digit numbers).
However, I’d add a few more things.
Look deeper into the poll, and you’ll see Mayor Pete carrying a familiar strength and weakness: Namely, he dominates among whites, white liberals, and those with a college degree. Which was his coalition in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.
But among demographic groups where he struggled in ’20 (blacks and lower income voters), Pete continues to underperform in this very small, initial Michigan survey.
He actually comes in third place among blacks, and although he leads among those without a college degree, it’s a smaller advantage than he’s got among those with a college degree edge.
One of the common interpretations of his dismal showing among blacks in ’20 is his sexual orientation (gay). Blacks are more religious than whites, more likely than others to read the Bible regularly, viewing it as God’s word, and are more likely to be associated with denominations that consider homosexuality a sin.
There’s no polling on why exactly Pete absolutely tanked among blacks in the South Carolina primary (he earned less than 2% of the black vote and finished 4th overall, after finishing a strong 2nd, overall, in both Iowa and New Hampshire, where blacks made up a much smaller share of voters.
It could be that Mayor Pete was perceived as too liberal and South Carolina blacks picked the most moderate candidate, Joe Biden.
Maybe.
But that conclusion doesn’t explain why Bernie Sanders (far more liberal) performed much better than Pete, pulling in 17% of blacks vs. 2% for Pete.
And anecdotally, hop onto even liberal message boards and there’s an acknowledgement among his backers that his sexual orientation probably still makes him a tough sell in a party where blacks form a decisive part of the primary coalition.
Now here’s the interesting thing for the Michigan primary.
His most formidable opponent, Dana Nessel, is openly lesbian and well-known in the state.
However, blacks still prefer her to Mayor Pete.
It could be name ID or familiarity, but my hunch is that Mayor Pete also struggles connecting with lower income voters – even setting aside sexual orientation – as a general rule of thumb.
2028 TAKEAWAY:
Politico notes this doesn’t mean he’s ruling out a 2028 presidential bid, but I think it’s less likely that, after living in Michigan for just two years (making him vulnerable to the attack he’s a carpetbagger), he would jump ship on the electorate that just voted for him and say, “Bye, I’m running for president.”
However, there is significant advantage for Mayor Pete in 2032 at the presidential level if he wins a Senate seat in Michigan.
Here’s why.
First, if he proves himself popular in a blue wall state as a guy currently tagged with “the rich eloquent liberal” thing, it helps him, well, shake that tag.
As a Michigan Senator, he can focus on learning to connect a little better with minorities and those without a college degree.
Second, even though “Mayor Pete” was an endearing moniker that certainly had/has a nice ring, it did/does carry the ring of “That’s all you’ve done?” when it comes to the presidential level. Blessing and curse kind of thing (Of course, he had his stint in the Biden Administration, but Transportation Secretary isn’t exactly the kind of experience for shedding the “Mayor Pete” label).
So if he can add “Senator Pete from a hugely important state”, that’s a big upgrade for his national resume.
But a win would still seem to make him less likely to run for president in 2028, even though he’ll likely be significant voice within the party in the next presidential cycle.
